한국의 석유소비, 해양유류유출사고, 경제성장의 인과관계 분석
Causality Analysis of Oil Consumption, Oil-spills, and Economic Growth in Korea
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The purpose of this study is to examine the causal relationship among oil consumption, oiltanker accidents, and economic growth, and to derive policy implications from the results. Therefore, this paper attempts to analyze the short term, long term, and strong causality factors pertaining to the relationship between oil consumption, oil-tanker accidents, and economic growth in Korea using time-series techniques and annual data for the 1984−2016 period. Tests for unit roots, co-integration, and Grangercausality based on an error-correction model are presented. The results show that bidirectional causality exists between oil consumption and oil-tanker accidents, between economic growth and oil consumption, and between oil-tanker accidents and economic growth. The study shows that oil was used as a core energy source during the rapid economic growth of Korea in the past, and that this caused the number of oil-tanker accidents to rise as oil consumption increased.
Abstract
The purpose of this study is to examine the causal relationship among oil consumption, oiltanker accidents, and economic growth, and to derive policy implications from the results. Therefore, this paper attempts to analyze the short term, long term, and strong causality factors pertaining to the relationship between oil consumption, oil-tanker accidents, and economic growth in Korea using time-series techniques and annual data for the 1984−2016 period. Tests for unit roots, co-integration, and Grangercausality based on an error-correction model are presented. The results show that bidirectional causality exists between oil consumption and oil-tanker accidents, between economic growth and oil consumption, and between oil-tanker accidents and economic growth. The study shows that oil was used as a core energy source during the rapid economic growth of Korea in the past, and that this caused the number of oil-tanker accidents to rise as oil consumption increased.
참고문헌 (33)
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