일본기업의 자금제약에 관한 분석 : 일본제조업 492사의 실증분석
Analysis of Financial Constraints on Japanese Firms (Empirical Analysis of 492 Japanese Manufacturers)
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본 연구는 일본기업을 대상으로 기업설비투자에 있어서의 자금제약문제를 검토하는 것이 기본적인 목적이며, 동태적 GMM 분석방법을 이용하여 추정하였다. 본 연구의 목적으로는, ①기업투자에 영향을 끼치는 자금제약문제를 검토할 때에, 현금흐름(cash flow)에 근거한 연구가 타당성이 있는가, ②일본경제에 있어서도 미국의 분석과 같이, 기업의 수익성과 투자기회를 나타내는 변수로서 Real Q가 타당한가 등을 분석하는 것이며, 이를 위해 1986년부터 1998년에 걸쳐 일본상장제조업 492사를 이용하여 분석하였다. 실증분석에 있어서는 Tobin's q와 Real Q, 그리고 현금흐름등을 설명변수로 하는 설비투자함수를 측정하여, 각각의 투자행동에 있어 정합성(整合性)과 유의성(有意性)을 검토하였다. 본 논문의 기본적인 방법론은 Cummins, Hassett and Oliner（1999)를 답습하였으며, 증권분석가의 수익예상에 착목한 Real Q모델의 방법에 따라서 한계 ｑ를 작성하였다. 실증분석에 따른 결과를 간단하게 요약하면 다음과 같다. ① 미국기업에서와 같이 일본제조업을 대상으로 한 실증분석에서도 평균 q의 설명력이 Real Q보다 현저히 낮게 나타났다. ② Real Q로서 펀더멘털을 조정하면 Real Q계수는 유의성이 높고, 현금흐름의 유의성은 감소한다. 따라서 현금흐름이 순수하게 자금제약에 한정된 정보를 갖고 있다고 보긴 어렵다. ③ 현금흐름이 갖고 있는 정보량과 현재의 수익률이 갖고 있는 정보량이 상당히 비슷하다. 따라서 현금흐름도 수익성을 나타내는 변수라고 표현할 수 있다.
Abstract
The basic objective of this study is to examine the problems related to financial constraints during the establishment of investments by Japanese firms, and the method used for the assumption is the GMM. The main objectives of this study are to ①analyze if the study, which is based on the cash flow, is appropriate for examining the problems related to financial constraints that affect the investment, and ②determine if Real Q is appropriate as a factor for showing the possibility of earnings and investment opportunities in Japan, just like in the analysis on the USA. In order to achieve these objectives, the study analyzed 492 listed enterprises in Japan from 1986 to 1998. For the empirical analysis, the study analyzed the Tobin's q, Real Q and investment function, which takes the cash flow as the explanatory variable, in order to examine the conformance and significance of each investment behavior. The basic methodology of the study followed Cummins, Hassett and Oliner (1999). The following shows a summary of results of the empirical analysis done on Japanese manufacturers. ①Even in the empirical analysis of Japanese manufacturers, the explanation of Average Q was a lot lower than that of Real Q, just like the US companies. ②When the fundamentals are adjusted to Real Q, the significance of a Real Q coefficient is high and the significance of the cash flow decreases. Therefore, it is hard to say that the cash flow has limited information regarding the financial constraints. ③ The amount of information provided by the cash flow and the amount of information given by the current earnings rate are pretty similar. Therefore, it can be said that the cash flow is a variable that shows earnings.
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