일본의 양적완화 정책 동향과 성과에 관한 연구 ‒아베노믹스와 기시다노믹스를 중심으로‒

Abstract

This study conducted an analysis on the results of Japan’s quantitative easing policy, which has lasted for more than 10 years. To this end, a comprehensive review was conducted using data that could understand the impact of quantitative easing policies on the macroeconomy, households, companies, and the government. The results of the study are as follows. First of all, in the case of macro indicators, only two years in 2013 and 2021 have achieved Abenomics’ main goal of 2% real GDP growth during the 2013-2022 period, and only one year in 2013 has achieved significant real GDP growth, considering that 2020 is a rebound from the 2019 decline. In the case of households, the real wage index continued to fall during the 2013-2022 period, while the consumer price index increased, indicating that the household economy contracted. On the corporate side, the facility investment plan of companies with a capital of more than 100 million yen increased during the 2013-2022 period, while the corporate survey index of mid- and small-sized companies showed a decreasing trend. In particular, in the case of small and medium-sized enterprises, the economy was judged negatively during the period of 2013 to 2022, excluding the first quarter of 2014. In the case of the government, 22.6% of Japan’s expenditure was accounted for by government bonds and 34.3% of its revenue was accounted for by public bonds as of 2022. As a result, Japan’s total general government debt reached 1,547 trillion yen in 2022, indicating that the Japanese government’s fiscal soundness has deteriorated significantly due to quantitative easing that has lasted for more than a decade. This study is of policy and academic significance to analyze the effectiveness and side effects of the policy, focusing on Japan’s quantitative easing policy, which has been implemented in the mid- to long-term since the 2000s. In addition, the method of analyzing not only macroeconomic indicators but also indicators that can grasp the economy of households, companies, and the government can be used as a useful research method.