미래 기후변화에 따른 가정 및 상업 부문 에너지수요 변화 추정
Estimation of Energy Use in Residential and Commercial Sectors Attributable to Future Climate Change
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초록
In this study it is attempted to estimate the possible change in energy use for residentialand commercial sector in Korea under a future climate change senario. Based on thenational energy use and observed temperature data during the period 1991~2010, the optimalbase temperature for determining heating and cooling degree days (HDD and CDD) is calculated. Then, net changes in fossil fuel and electricity uses that are statistically linked with atemperature variation are quantified through regression analyses of HDD and CDD against theenergy use. Finally, the future projection of energy use is estimated by applying the regressionmodel and future temperature projections by the CMIP5 results under the RCP8.5 scenario. The results indicate that, overall, the net annual energy use will decrease mostly due to a largedecrease in the fossil fuel use for heating. However, a clear seasonal contrast in energy use is anticipated in the electricity use; there will be an increase in a warm-season demand for cooling but a decrease in a cold-season demand for heating.
Abstract
In this study it is attempted to estimate the possible change in energy use for residentialand commercial sector in Korea under a future climate change senario. Based on thenational energy use and observed temperature data during the period 1991~2010, the optimalbase temperature for determining heating and cooling degree days (HDD and CDD) is calculated. Then, net changes in fossil fuel and electricity uses that are statistically linked with atemperature variation are quantified through regression analyses of HDD and CDD against theenergy use. Finally, the future projection of energy use is estimated by applying the regressionmodel and future temperature projections by the CMIP5 results under the RCP8.5 scenario. The results indicate that, overall, the net annual energy use will decrease mostly due to a largedecrease in the fossil fuel use for heating. However, a clear seasonal contrast in energy use is anticipated in the electricity use; there will be an increase in a warm-season demand for cooling but a decrease in a cold-season demand for heating.
참고문헌 (16)
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