SSP 기반 고해상도 남한상세 기후변화 시나리오를 통한 우리나라 미래 기후 전망
Future Climate Projection in South Korea using the High-Resolution SSP Scenarios based on Statistical Downscaling
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초록
Recently, there is a growing demand for high-resolution region-specific information on potential future climate change. In order to respond to this, we developed high-resolution (1km) gridded observation data (2000-2019) using MK-PRISM and climate change scenarios (2021-2100) using PRIDE model in South Korea. In this study, the projection of future climate in South Korea using the high-resolution climate change scenarios is presented. We presented the results for 5 ensemble members and ensemble averages of the high-resolution climate change scenarios. Compared to observations, MK-PRISM over the last 20 years (2000-2019) shows a weak warm bias of temperature bias and a weak dry bias of precipitation in South Korea. Compared to present-day, temperature is expected to increase by 2.3-6.3°C and precipitation increase by 3-18% at the late 21st century (2081-2100), with stronger changes under the higher emission scenarios (SSP5-8.5). In line with mean warming rates, extreme high temperature indices (HW/TR) are projected to increase by 15.4-70.7days/19.3-65.3days and extreme precipitation indices (RX1D/D80) are projected to increase by 20.6-39.5°C/0.3-1.7days. The temperature extremes are expected to increase significantly in capital-area, and the precipitation extremes are expected to increase significantly in JeJu-do. The results of this study can be used as a reference for future detailed analyses of South Korean climate changes and its impacts as well as for assessing the importance of carbon neutrality.
Abstract
Recently, there is a growing demand for high-resolution region-specific information on potential future climate change. In order to respond to this, we developed high-resolution (1km) gridded observation data (2000-2019) using MK-PRISM and climate change scenarios (2021-2100) using PRIDE model in South Korea. In this study, the projection of future climate in South Korea using the high-resolution climate change scenarios is presented. We presented the results for 5 ensemble members and ensemble averages of the high-resolution climate change scenarios. Compared to observations, MK-PRISM over the last 20 years (2000-2019) shows a weak warm bias of temperature bias and a weak dry bias of precipitation in South Korea. Compared to present-day, temperature is expected to increase by 2.3-6.3°C and precipitation increase by 3-18% at the late 21st century (2081-2100), with stronger changes under the higher emission scenarios (SSP5-8.5). In line with mean warming rates, extreme high temperature indices (HW/TR) are projected to increase by 15.4-70.7days/19.3-65.3days and extreme precipitation indices (RX1D/D80) are projected to increase by 20.6-39.5°C/0.3-1.7days. The temperature extremes are expected to increase significantly in capital-area, and the precipitation extremes are expected to increase significantly in JeJu-do. The results of this study can be used as a reference for future detailed analyses of South Korean climate changes and its impacts as well as for assessing the importance of carbon neutrality.
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