위기정책결정이론의 재검토
Crisis Decision Making Theory Revisited
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참고문헌
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초록
국제사회에서 안보의 위기는 불확실성의 급격한 증대로 인해 전쟁의 발발 가능성을높이고 세력균형의 재편을 유도하면서 국제사회의 안정과 평화를 짧은 순간에 극도로위협하곤 한다. 특히 위기 시 정책결정과정은 평상시와는 달리 심리적이고 비정상적인 요인들의 개입되면서 정책결정자들로 하여금 합리적인 상황 인식과 결정들을 저해한다. 즉 정치지도자 개인의 격심한 스트레스, 정책결정자 그룹들이 공유하고 있는 신념 체계, 과거 유사 위기사례에 관한 공동의 학습 경험, 불충분하고 불확실한 정보의유입, 국내정치의 내재화, 지역적 국제체계의 구조적 특징과 같은 요인들이 정책결정과정에 복합적으로 작동하게 된다. 이러한 요인들의 작동은 정책결정자들로 하여금 위기에 직면하여 가설을 설정하고 대안을 작성하는데 현실적 어려움을 야기하고 때로는비합리적인 정책결정을 유도한다. 본 논문은 이와 같은 주장들을 검증하기 위해 한반도에서 발생한 대표적 위기인 1968년 발발한 북한의 푸에블로호 나포사건을 사례로기존의 정책결정 이론들인 엘리슨 모델, 제한된 합리성 모델, 인지적 모델, 폴리휴리스틱 모델과 같은 위기정책결정과정 이론들의 설명력과 타당성을 검증하고 당시 정책결정과정에서 확인할 수 있는 다양한 정책결정 요인들의 상호 적용과정을 분석한다.
Abstract
As a security crisis in the international arena results in the rapid growth of uncertainty, the outbreak of war becomes more likely and the balance of power is forced to change. Meanwhile, the peace and stability of the international community is severely threatened for a brief moment. In particular, with more psychological and abnormal factors being introduced into the crisis decision-making process than in normal conditions, awareness and decisions are constrained by the policy-makers’rational state. Namely, the intense personal stress upon political leaders, the shared belief systems within policy-making groups, the study of similarities among comparable historic crises, the inadequate and uncertain flow of information, the internalization of domestic politics, and the regional structure features of the international system all part of the complex reality influencing the decision-making process. While policymakers build hypotheses and prepare alternatives when facing a crisis, the effects of these factors create real difficulties and occasionally lead to irrational decisionmaking. To test such claims, this paper will analyze the explanatory power and validity of contemporary policy-making theories such as the Allison Model, Bounded Rationality Model, Cognitive Model, and Poliheulistic Model through a case study examination of the Pueblo Incident on1968,a notable crisis on the Korean peninsula.
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