음주와 범죄의 관계: 알코올 소비량과 강간범죄의 관계를 중심으로
Alcohol and Crime : Causality and Policy Implications on Rape Crime
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본 논문은 시도 경찰청의 범죄통계와 패널고정효과 모형을 이용하여 알코올 소비량과 강간범죄 사이의 인과관계를 규명한다. 특히 알코올 소비량과 강간범죄율 사이의 내생성 문제를 해소하기 위해 한국인의 알코올 소비량 중 70%를 점하는 소주 산업의 수직적 제약구조를 이용하였다. 본 논문의 실증분석 결과에 따르면 알코올 소비량은 강간범죄와 양(+)의 관계가 식별되었으며, 검거율과 기소율 등 억지정책의 효과와 비교하여 뚜렷한 효과가 있는 것으로 나타났다. 이는 강간범죄를 예방하기 위한 정책대안으로써 음주관리정책의 중요성을 보여준다.
Abstract
Using a state-level panel data over the years 1994–2010 from the Korea National Police Agency, this paper explores the potential relationship between alcohol consumption and rape. Specifically, in order to address the problem of endogeneity between alcohol consumption and crime, this study introduces a instrumental variable, which derived from the vertical restraint structure of the Korean distilled liquor industry. The results of empirical analysis show that alcohol consumption is positively correlated with rape crime and that it is more effective than the deterrence policies like arrest rate and indictment rate. Also, arrest rate is observed to have a negative relationship with rape crimes. This paper emphasizes the importance of alcohol management policy as a policy alternative to prevent rape crime.
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