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The Effect of Alcohol Outlet Density on Crime Rates: A Dose-Response Function Model Approach

염윤호
한국경찰학회 (Korean Association Of Police Science)|2021.06|한국경찰학회보 (The Korean Association of Police Science Review)|제23권 제3호|pp. 107-134

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참고문헌

키워드

폭력범죄사회구조적 특성Property Crime절도범죄주류업소용량반응함수모형Alcohol OutletViolence CrimeStructural Covariates of CrimeDose-Response Function Model.

초록

본 연구는 서울시 관악구를 연구대상 지역으로 설정하고 주류업소밀집도 등의 다양한 사회구조적 특성이 폭력 및 절도범죄에 미치는 차별적 영향력을 분석하고자 하였다. 특히, 그러한 분석과정에서 주류업소밀집도를 연속적 실험처치로 가정하고, 연속적 실험처치에 내재한 ‘0’과잉 문제를 해결하고 외생변수의 종속변수에 대한 직·간접적 영향력을 동시에 분석할 수 있는 용량반응함수모형을 적용하였다. 그 결과, 주류업소밀집도는 두 유형의 범죄에 대해서 정적 영향력을 나타냄을 추정하였다. 특히, 본 연구는 주류업소가 1천 명당 1개소 증가할 때, 폭력범죄는 0.75건, 절도범죄는 1.14건 증가함을 추정하였다. 뿐만 아니라, 외생변수로 측정된 인구밀도, 1인 가구, 남성인구, CCTV 밀집도는 두 유형의 범죄와 통계적으로 유의미한 관계를 나타냄을 확인하였다. 이러한 결과를 토대로, 범죄유형 및 지역의 사회구조적 특성에 따라 개별화된 범죄예방 정책을 전개할 것을 제안하였다.

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to examine the association between alcohol outlet density and two types of crime, violent and property, in Seoul, South Korea with a dose-response function model. Assuming the level of alcohol outlet as a treatment variable, this study aimed to estimate different effects of treatment on the experiment and control group. The experiment group had at least one alcohol outlet within the geographical unit of analysis whereas the counterpart had none. Particularly, observing zero-inflated and continuous nature of the distribution of alcohol outlets, this study applied the dose-response model suggested by Cerulli(2015). This study estimated that alcohol outlet density is positively associated with two types of crime. Additionally, this study found that structural variables, including population density, single-person household, male population, and CCTV density, are significantly associated with two types of crime. Such associations were found substantially different in their direction and strength depending on the level of alcohol outlet density and the type of crime. This study illustrated the level of alcohol outlet density discriminatorily impacts the two types of crime. Based on these findings, this study suggested that law enforcement agencies design more customized crime prevention programs targeting different crimes and areas with different levels of alcohol outlet density.

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