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인도의 해외송금유입과 경제성장, 금융시장발전, 소비 간의 상관관계 분석

The Analysis on the Remittance Inflow Effects on Economic Growth, Financial Development, Import and Household Final Consumption in India

이순철
인도연구소 (Institute of Indian Studies)|2019.08|남아시아연구 (Journal of South Asian Studies)|제25권 제2호|pp. 117-152|DOI 10.21587/jsas.2019.25.2.004

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참고문헌

키워드

economic growth경제성장financial developmentconsumptionimport해외송금유입금융시장발전가계최종소비해외수입remittance inflow
주제분류지역학

초록

본고는 1978~2017년 기간 동안의 자료를 이용하여 인도로 유입되는 해외송금 현황과 특징을 먼저 고찰한 후, 해외송금과 경제성장, 금융시장발전, 그리고 소비(가계최종소비 및 해외수입) 간의 상관관계를 실증 분석하였다. 인도의 해외송금은 2003년부터 급격히 증가하여 무역수지로부터 발생하는 적자를 충분히 보전할 수 있을 정도가 될 뿐만 아니라 경기 침체기에도 안정적으로 유입되는 것으로 나타나, 그 영향에 관한 실증분석이 요구된다. 실증분석 결과, 해외송금은 단기적으로 경제성장에 긍정적인 역할을 하지만 시간이 갈수록 부정적으로 전환되는 것으로 분석되었다. 금융시장발전과는 연관성이 없으며, 단기적으로는 물가변동의 원인이 되지만 시간이 지날수록 안정화에는 도움을 주는 것으로 나타났다. 또한 가계최종소비에는 긍정적인 역할을 하는 것으로 분석되었다. 하지만 가계최종소비가 경제성장과는 연관성이 없는 것으로 나타나 해외송금이 소비를 통한 경제성장을 견인하지는 않는 것으로 추론되었다. 따라서 본고는 앞으로 경제성장에 기여하기 위해서는 해외송금이 금융시장의 시스템을 통해 유입되어 소비가 투자로 연계되고, 이것이 다시 경제성장으로 연계되는 체계적이고 효율적 활용방안이 요구된다는 정책적 시사점을 제시하였다.

Abstract

Using data from the 1978-2017 period, this study first examines the status and characteristics of the remittance inflow in India, and empirically analyzes the correlation between remittance inflow and economic growth, financial market development, and household final consumption and import. India's remittance inflows have increased sharply since 2003, enough to cover the trade deficit, as well as contributing the economic stabilization during the recession. An empirical analysis of the effects is required. Empirical analysis shows that remittances play a positive role in economic growth in the short term, but are turning negative over time. There is no correlation with financial market development, and it is found to cause the price fluctuations in the short term, but it helps stabilize it over time. It is also analyzed to play a positive role in the increase of the household final consumption. However, it has been inferred that remittances do not drive economic growth through consumption, as household final spending is found to be unrelated to economic growth. Therefore, the study presents its policy implications that remittances will flow through the financial market system in the future, and consumption will be linked to investment, which in turn requires systematic and efficient utilization measures linked to economic growth.

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