해외송금 유입이 개발도상국의 금융발전에 미치는 영향
Impacts of Remittance Inflows on Financial Development in Developing Countries
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초록
이주노동자의 해외송금은 개발도상국 경제에서 외환수입의 원천이자 금융발전 측면에서 매우 중요한 역할을 하고 있다. 본 연구는 세계은행의 연간 자료를 이용하고 패널 PMG와 패널 VECM기법을 적용하여 1981년부터 2018년까지 해외송금 유입이 개발도상국의 금융발전에 미치는 영향을 분석하며, 1994년부터 2018년까지 해외송금 유입이 금융발전에 미치는 장·단기 영향의 크기와 방향을 분석하고 도입 변수들의 동태적 인과관계의 정도를 파악함을 목적으로 하였다. 본 연구의 핵심적인 연구결과는 제시하면 다음과 같다. 첫째, 패널 PMG기법을 이용한 장기균형식 결과 1% 유의수준에서 해외송금의 증가는 국내신용을 확대시키는 것으로 나타났다. 그리고 오차수정항이 음(-)의 부호를 가지면서 통계적으로 유의한 것으로 분석되었다. 단기적으로 저소득국가 그룹만이 해외송금 변동이 국내신용 변동에 통계적으로 긍정적으로 유의한 영향을 주는 것으로 분석되었다. 둘째, 패널 VECM을 추정한 결과 저소득국가와 고중소득국가로의 해외송금 유입은 국내신용에 단기와 장기에 일방적 인과성을 갖는 것으로 나타났다. 게다가, 저중소득국가와 고중소득국가로의 해외송금은 순공적개발원조에 단기와 장기에서 영향을 주는 것으로 분석되었다. 본 연구의 실증적 결과는 개발도상국들의 금융재원 가용성 향상과 금융중개 효율성 향상 정책을 수립하는 기초자료를 제공함으로써 이주노동자의 국제적 이동을 향상시켜 개발도상국들의 지속적인 금융발전과 경제성장을 달성하는데 도움을 줄 수 있을 것이다.
Abstract
Purpose : The objective of this paper is to analyze the effects of remittance inflows on financial development by income level in developing countries. Research design, data, methodology : This paper uses the World Bank's annual data from 1981 to 2018 and from 1994 to 2018 applying the panel PMG and panel VECM methods to analyze the long-term and short-term impacts of remittance inflows on financial development in developing countries. Results : As a result of the long-term equilibrium equation, the increase in remittances at the 1% significant level showed to expand domestic credit. In addition to, the VECM results showed that short-term and long-term unidirectional causality running from remittance inflows into domestic credit in the low income and upper middle income countries. Conclusions : The empirical results of this study will help improving the availability of financial resources and establishing policies for improving the efficiency of financial intermediation in developing countries.
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