해외송금이 경제성장에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구: 동남아시아 국가를 중심으로
Effects of Overseas Remittances on Economic Growth of South-East Asia Countries
0
조회
0
다운로드
0
인용
0
참고문헌
키워드
초록
많은 선행연구들은 해외송금의 저성장 또는 개도국의 국가경제 성장에 대한 긍정적 기여를 실증적으로 확인하고, 이러한 영향력의 다양한 특성을 여러 사례를 통해 검토해 왔다. 하지만 이들 연구들은 대부분 해외송금의 영향력 특성을 주로 선형모형을 활용하여 실증분석하여 해외송금이 국가별 성장단계의 특성에 따라 어떠한 차별적 영향력을 가지는지를 고려하지 못하였다는 한계를 가진다. 이에 본 연구는 해외송금과 경제성장의 관련성을 선형적 특성과 비선형적 특성을 함께 고려하고, 개도국과 선도국으로 분석대상을 구분하여, 동남아시아 14개국의 1990~2020년 연간 패널자료로 실제로 이들 국가에서의 해외송금 유입이 국가경제 성장에 유의미한 영향을 미치는지를 분석하였다. 실증분석 결과로부터, 동남아시아 국가에서의 해외송금 유입은 선행연구의 분석결과와 함께 전반적으로 국가경제 성장에 긍정적으로 기여해 온 것으로 파악되었지만, 그 효과는 국가의 소득수준에 따라 다소 차이가 존재함을 살펴볼 수 있었다. 즉, 개도국에서의 해외송금은 경제성장에 선형적으로 기여하지만, 선도국에서 해외송금의 기여도는 긍정적 영향력을 보임에도 불구하고 그 영향력의 증가분은 한계체감함을 살펴볼 수 있었다.
Abstract
Purpose : This study analyzed whether the inflow of overseas remittances actually had a significant effect on economic growth of South-East Asian countries. Research design, data, methodology : This study utilized annual panel data of 14 South-East Asian countries. Because it was not possible to collect all variable data from 14 countries at once, unbalanced panel data was analyzed, and the analysis data was obtained through WDI(World Development Indicators, 2022) provided by the World Bank. Also, this study analyzed the influence of overseas remittances on economic growth by considering both linear and nonlinear models. Results and Conclusions : From the results of the empirical analysis, it was found that the inflow of overseas remittances from South-East Asian countries contributed positively to the growth of the national economy overall, but the effect differed somewhat depending on the country's income level. That is, the greater the number of overseas remittances in the developing countries, the greater their contribution to economic growth, but in the developed countries, the contribution of overseas remittances is positive, but the increase in their influence is decreasing.
참고문헌 (25)
- International Remittances and the Household: Analysis and Review of Global Evidence, "Adams, R.", World Bank, ~, pp.Working Paper 4116 (2007)
- Adams, R., "Remittances, Household Expenditure and Investment in Guatemala", World Development, 38(11), pp.1626~1641 (2010)
- International Migration, Remittances and Poverty in Developing Countries, "Adams, R.", World Bank, ~, pp.Working Paper, 3179 (2005)
- Aggarwal, R., "Do Workers’Remittances Promote Financial Development?", Journal of Development Economics, 96, pp.255~264 (2011)
- Do Workers Remittances Promote Economic Growth?, "Barajas, A.", IMF, ~, pp.Working Papers 09 (2009), 153
- Migration and Remittances in Latin America and the Caribbean: Engines of Growth and Macroeconomic Stabilizer?, "Beaton, K.", IMF, ~, pp.Working Paper, 17 (2017), 144
- Worker Remittances and Capital Flows, "Buch, C. M.", Kiel Institute of World Economics, ~ (2002)
- Burgess, R., "Do Rural Banks Matter? : Evidence from the Indian Social Banking Experiment", American Economic Review, 95(3), pp.78~795 (2005)
- Cardona-Sosa and Medina, "Migration as a Safety Net and Effects of Remittances on Household Consumption : the Case of Colombia", Borradores de Economia, 414 (2006)
- Are Immigrant Remittance Flows a Source of Capital for Development?, "Chami, R.", IMF, ~, pp.Working Paper 03 (2003), 189
- Connell, J., "Migration and Remittances in Island Micro-States : A Comparative Perspective on the South Pacific and the Caribbean", International Journal of Urban and Regional Research, 24, pp.52~78 (2000)
- 이경아, "공적개발원조가 수혜국의 수출 및 경제 성장에 미치는 영향", 經濟硏究, 33(2), pp.43~72 (2012), 경제연구소
- 이순철, "인도의 해외송금유입과 경제성장, 금융시장발전, 소비 간의 상관관계 분석", 남아시아연구, 25(2), pp.117~152 (2019), 인도연구소[DOI]
- 이종하, "해외송금과 경제성장의 관계 분석 - 금융발전을 중심으로 -", 재정정책논집, 18(4), pp.121~144 (2016), 한국재정정책학회
- Meyer, D., "The Impact of Remittance on Economic Growth : An Econometric Model", Econometrica, 18, pp.147~155 (2017)
- Outlook for Remittance Flows 2011-12: Migration and Development, "Mohapatra, S.", World Bank, ~ (2011)
- Mundaca, B. G., "Remittances, Financial Market Development, and Economic Growth: The Case of Latin America and the Caribbean", Review of Development Economics, 13(2), pp.288~303 (2009)
- Pande, A., "India’s Experience with Remittances: a Critical Analysis", The Round Table, ~ (2018)
- Paola G., "Remittances, Financial Development, and Growth", Journal of Development Economics, 90(1), pp.144~152 (2009)
- Ratha, D., "Recent Trends in International Remittance Flows", Paper presented at the Technology on Remittances Workshop (2004)
- International Migration and Income Distribution in the Philippines, "Rodriguez, E.", World Bank, ~ (1998)
- Business Cycles and Workers’ Remittances: How do Migrant Workers Respond to Cyclical Movements of GDP at Home?, "Sayan, S.", IMF, 1~18, pp.Working Paper, 06 (2006), 2
- Suh, Woo-Taek, "An Empirical Analysis of the Effects of ODA on the Economic Growth of Developing Countries-with a Focus on Indonesia, the Philippines and Vietnam", International Developing and Cooperation Review, 4(1), pp.57~87 (2012)
- Taylor, J. E., "The New Economics of Labour Migration and the Role of Remittances in the Migration Process", International Migration, 37, pp.63~88 (1999)
- 원용걸, "개방과 경제성장: 동아시아와 라틴아메리카의 경제성장 경험 비교", 비교경제연구, 17(2), pp.1~38 (2010), 한국비교경제학회[DOI]