중국의 기술 굴기와 미국의 대응 : 중국의 대미 취약성과 그 함의
China’s Technological Rise and the U.S. Response : China’s Vulnerability and its Implication
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초록
본 논문의 목적은 중국의 첨단기술 굴기와 그에 대한 미국의 견제전략을 분석하는 것이다. 개혁개방기 중국은 중저가 소비상품의 대미 수출을 통해 막대한 무역흑자를 얻고 이를 기반으로 경제 발전을 성취해왔다. 그러나 그러한 발전은 중국 경제가 미국 소비시장 및 달러화에 취약해진다는 것을 의미했다. 따라서, 중국은 ‘중국제조 2025’ 전략을 기반으로 제조업을 첨단화해 대미 취약성을 극복하려는 의지를 드러내고 있다. 중국의 시도는 달러 패권에 기반한 신브레튼우즈 체제의 붕괴를 초래할 수 있기 때문에 미국은 중국의 기술 굴기를 견제하고 있다. 현재 미중 무역분쟁에서 트럼프 정부의 핵심 표적이 단순한 무역역조 문제가 아니라 중국제조 2025라는 사실은 이를 보여준다. 향후 중국은 미국을 자극하지 않는 보다 유화적 방식으로 제조업 첨단화 전략을 수행할 가능성이 크다.
Abstract
This article analyzes China’s rise in high tech manufacturing industry and the U.S. balancing strategy against it. Since its open door policy, China has developed its economy with a large amount of trade surplus with the U.S. For China’s part, however, such development strategy has increased its vulnerability to US dollar as well as US market. In this respect, China attempts to innovate its manufacturing industry with a high-tech developmental strategy such as ‘Made in China 2025.’ In response, Washington intends to prevent China’s high-tech rise since that may lead to the end of the new Bretton Woods system based on the dollar hegemony. This is why Trump administration during the current trade war is taking aim at ‘Made in China 2025.’ It is likely that China will not abandon its intention for high-tech rise but in a more cautions way not to estrange the United States.
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