미-중 디커플링 정책의 정치경제학과 한국의 대응방안
Political Economy of the US-China Decoupling: Implications to Strategic Responses in Korea
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초록
본 연구는 패권전쟁을 둘러싼 중국과 미국의 비합리적 정책 추진 뒤에 어떠한 전략적 목표와 행동이 있는지를 ‘East Asian Miracle’ 논쟁의 정치경제적 관점에서 설명하고자 한다. 특정산업 목표-선별적 정부간섭에 대한 비판의 이면에 개도국이 선진국의 주력 및 전략 산업에 진입할 때 발생하는 다자간 무역체제의 불완전성 문제가 있다. 주요 시사점은 다음과 같다. 첫째, 독자적 혁신체계의 완성과 미국 경제로부터의 디커플링 자체가 중국의 전략적 목표가 아니다. 미국 및 동맹 국가의 중국 배제-기술 디커플링 체제 완성 이전에, 적극적 국가 개입을 통하여 핵심 및 차세대 기술 능력을 자유무역 체제에서 최대한 제고하고자 하는 것이 중국의 의도이다. 둘째, 미국이 추진하는 중국 규제의 2가지 측면(공정경쟁 촉진 시장개혁과 자국 산업 보호)에 대한 구별 및 차별적 대응이 필요하다. 셋째, 공정경쟁 다자무역체제 복원 이전에 미국과 중국의 보호주의의 부정적 충격을 완화하는 대응 방안으로 일본과의 협력 및 CPTPP 가입이 필요하다. 넷째, 미국과 중국의 기술패권 전쟁에서 선진국 진영에 참가하는 것은 당연하다. 서구 원천 차세대 및 핵심기술이 중국으로 확산되는 것을 최대한 억제하는 것이 동맹국의 공통 목표이며 한국의 입장에서도 국가 이익을 최대화하는 수단이다.
Abstract
This paper tries to understand the irrational policy actions of the US and China, such as trade war with and economic decoupling from each other, as rational strategic behaviors. Political economy of the ‘East Asian Miracle’ disputes in 1993 shed light on this; how to solve conflicts of interests between the late-comers and developed countries which arise when the former enter into technology-intensive sectors of the latter. The main implications of this paper are as follows. First, China’s declared aim of establishing independent innovation system and decoupling from the US' economy would be strategic and disguised actions to secure the technological competitiveness in the key or the next-generation ones through the government’s interventions and the utilization of the open innovation system of the world trade regime. Second, there are three aspects of the US’ regulations against China: one promoting fair competitions and national security and the other protecting the US’ incompetitive industries such as iron and steel. Differential approaches and responses are recommended. Third, joining to the CPTPP and cooperation with Japan would be recommended as strategic response to the US-China hegemonic war to attenuate not only the risks of the economic decoupling but also the negative shock of trade war and the reorganization of the global supply chain. Fourth, joining to the US and its alliances is recommended in the US-China technology war because the long-run benefits (of securing engines of sustainable economic growth) are larger than the short-run costs (arising from weakening economic linkages with the Chinese economy).
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