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미래 전망에 따른 중국 국유기업의 투자행위변화와 그 효과에 관한 연구

A Study on the Changes in Investment Behavior and its Effects According to the Future Prospects of Chinese State-owned Enterprises

이기영
중국연구소 (INSTITUTE OF CHINESE STUDIES, Hankuk University of Foreign St)|2022.06|중국연구 (Journal of Sinology and China Studies)|제91권 |pp. 87-111|DOI 10.18077/chss.2022.91..005

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키워드

국유기업Chinese economy중국경제투자증가율경제불확실성미래경제 예측Economic uncertaintyPredict of economic conditionState-owned enterpriseInvestment rate
주제분류중국어와문학

초록

본 연구에서는 기존 선행연구들을 통해서 미래경제 불확실성과 미래 경기에 대한 예측 등 미래 경제에 대한 정보들을 담고 있는 변수들을 통하여 모형을 구성하고, 미래 경제환경에 대한 정보를 주는 개별 변수들과 국유기업과 민영기업의 투자증가율이 어떠한 관계를 갖고, 그 관계의 통계적 유의성 여부를 실증분석을 통해 확인하였다. 그 후 만약 경제 불확실성이 증가함에 따라 국유기업 투자증가율 증가로 대응하는 행위가 통계적으로 유의하게 나타난다면, 그러한 국유기업의 투자율 증가가 중국경제의 불확실성을 효과적으로 감소시키는지를 검증하였다. 본 연구의 가설은 미래 경제상황 예측하는 변수들에 대하여 국유기업과 민영기업은 기업목표의 상이성(相異性)으로 인해 투자율 변화에 대해 서로 다른 태도를 보일 수 있으며, 경제 불확실성에 대응하기 위하여 진행한 국유기업의 투자율 증가가 과거와 달라진 현재의 중국경제의 환경에서는 오히려 경제 불확실성을 증가시킬 수 있다는 가설을 세우고 이를 검증하였다.

Abstract

This study divides Chinese enterprise types into state-owned enterprises and private enterprises, and analyzes how they change the investment rate when faced with information about the future economy. As a result, it was confirmed that, in the case of Chinese state-owned enterprises, they increase the investment rate for future economic uncertainty, increase the investment rate for future economic prospects when the recession is prolonged, and also increase the investment rate against the risk of a decline in future economic creditworthiness. However, as in Western theories, private enterprises have been shown to act in the opposite way by reducing the investment rate when an unfavorable economic environment is expected. This can be attributed to the fact that, due to the characteristics of China's socialist market economy, state-owned enterprises have an important purpose in addition to the goal of maximizing profits of general enterprises, as well as contributing to stable national macroeconomic growth. This study does not stop there and empirically analyzes whether the increase in the investment rate of state-owned enterprises that the Chinese government is taking to cope with economic uncertainty effectively reduces it. As a result of the analysis, it was found that an increase in the investment rate of state-owned enterprises in China does not effectively reduce future economic uncertainty, but rather increases it statistically. These results seem to be due to the fact that, since this study has been using the sample since January 2005, problems such as oversupply and overinvestment of state-owned companies' products have already begun to appear in the process of realizing rapid quantitative growth in the Chinese economy.

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