“修昔底德陷阱” vs. “金德伯格陷阱”
Thucydides’s Trap vs. Kindleberger’s Trap
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As strong leadership has emerged both in Korean Peninsula and surrounding countries, the Northeast Asia region faces a situation where cooperative factors and conflicts coexist and overlap, presenting both opportunities and challenges. Regarding structural changes in Northeast Asia, two possible scenarios stand out. Graham Allison has popularized the phrase “Thucydides’s Trap” to explain the likelihood of conflict between a rising power and a ruling one. Over the past 500 years, in twelve of sixteen cases identified by Allison, the result of such a dynamic has been a major war. In light of recent developments in international relations (IR), China as the rising power and the United States as the hegemon is a likely additional scenario according to the metrics of Allison’s “Thucydides’s Trap” framework. “Kindleberger’s Trap”, another plausible IR approach applicable to China and the U. S., argues that the rising power may not be as strong as the current ruling power fears. Thus, this study analyzes the uncertain situation of Northeast Asian region where newly⋅established leadership and extant hegemonic power coexist. Further, it seeks to frame this analysis within the parameters of China’s “One Belt One Road” economic strategy and the United States’ Indo⋅Pacific “pivot” strategy, providing direction and insight for South Korea’s foreign diplomacy and security strategy.
Abstract
As strong leadership has emerged both in Korean Peninsula and surrounding countries, the Northeast Asia region faces a situation where cooperative factors and conflicts coexist and overlap, presenting both opportunities and challenges. Regarding structural changes in Northeast Asia, two possible scenarios stand out. Graham Allison has popularized the phrase “Thucydides’s Trap” to explain the likelihood of conflict between a rising power and a ruling one. Over the past 500 years, in twelve of sixteen cases identified by Allison, the result of such a dynamic has been a major war. In light of recent developments in international relations (IR), China as the rising power and the United States as the hegemon is a likely additional scenario according to the metrics of Allison’s “Thucydides’s Trap” framework. “Kindleberger’s Trap”, another plausible IR approach applicable to China and the U. S., argues that the rising power may not be as strong as the current ruling power fears. Thus, this study analyzes the uncertain situation of Northeast Asian region where newly⋅established leadership and extant hegemonic power coexist. Further, it seeks to frame this analysis within the parameters of China’s “One Belt One Road” economic strategy and the United States’ Indo⋅Pacific “pivot” strategy, providing direction and insight for South Korea’s foreign diplomacy and security strategy.
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