Sino-American Conflict during the Trump Administration
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The classic conflict between a rising power and a ruling power, what Allison describes as Thucydides’s trap, is again manifested in the clash between China and the United States. Joseph Nye, on the other hand, has also raised the possibility of Kindleberger’s trap, which occurs when the emerging contender for hegemony is insufficiently strong. This paper looks at Thucydides’s and Kindleberger’s traps through the scope of Sino-American relations to analyze and understand the shifting balance of power between the rising power and the ruling power. Based upon our comparative understanding of these two concepts, the “China Dream” and “America First” policies, along with potential sources of conflict between China and the United States, including the trade war, territorial disputes, and the Hong Kong security law, will be examined. Furthermore, given the recent U.S. elections and the transition from Donald Trump to a Joe Biden presidency, this paper discusses the implications a new administration in Washington will have on Sino-American relations and how this will influence the likelihood of either Thucydides's trap or Kindleberger's trap becoming reality.
Abstract
The classic conflict between a rising power and a ruling power, what Allison describes as Thucydides’s trap, is again manifested in the clash between China and the United States. Joseph Nye, on the other hand, has also raised the possibility of Kindleberger’s trap, which occurs when the emerging contender for hegemony is insufficiently strong. This paper looks at Thucydides’s and Kindleberger’s traps through the scope of Sino-American relations to analyze and understand the shifting balance of power between the rising power and the ruling power. Based upon our comparative understanding of these two concepts, the “China Dream” and “America First” policies, along with potential sources of conflict between China and the United States, including the trade war, territorial disputes, and the Hong Kong security law, will be examined. Furthermore, given the recent U.S. elections and the transition from Donald Trump to a Joe Biden presidency, this paper discusses the implications a new administration in Washington will have on Sino-American relations and how this will influence the likelihood of either Thucydides's trap or Kindleberger's trap becoming reality.
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