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북한의 2차 핵실험과 북・중 관계

North Korea’s Second Nuclear Test and Sino-North Korean Relations

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2009년 5월 북한의 2차 핵실험 이후, 국제사회는 일종의 ‘실망감’을 가지며 중국이라는 행위자의 플레이를 지켜보고 있다. 하지만 중국이 가장 많은 대북 정책수단을 보유하고 있다는 객관적 사실에는 변함이 없으며, 그에 따른 중국 역할에 대한 ‘기대감’은 여전히 존재하고 있다. 이 글은 ⑴ 북・중 관계의 본질적 딜레마는 어디에서 오는 것인가? ⑵ 지금까지 북한은 어떻게 자국 생존의 전제조건처럼 보이는 중국을 “무시”하고 일련의 도발을 계속할 수 있었는가? ⑶ 중국은 그러한 북한의 도발이 분명히 자국 이해에 위배된다는 점을 인식하고 있고 더구나 제재의 수단이 많음에도, 왜 그것을 사용하지 못했는가? ⑷ 중국의 대북 인식변화를 실제 대북 정책변화로 연결시키려면 한국은 어떤 노력을 해야 하는가에 대해 나름의 해답을 제시하고 있다.

Abstract

After the second North Korean nuclear test in May 2009, the international audience showed its “disappointment” due to not only North Korean activity itself but also the influential actor, China, which could not control the North’s action. “Expectation” toward the role of China, however, is still remain as much as China has diverse policy instruments. In the basis of this assumption, this paper focuses on answering questions as follows: 1) where the essential dilemma of the Sino-North Korean relations is emerged from; 2) how North Korea has continued its provocative actions “ignoring” China, a key supporter for the North’s economic survival; 3) why China could not vigorously use its means of sanctions although China recognized the North’s provocation would damage to its national interest; and 4) what South Korea should do to connect the change of China’s perception on the North with the change of China’s North Korean policy.

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