러시아 무역자유화의 경제적 영향: 러시아의 WTO 가입과 EU와의 FTA를 중심으로
Economic Effects of Russia’s Trade Liberalization: Russia’s WTO Accession and FTAs with EU and Korea
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초록
GTAP CGE 모형(동학모형 및 자본축적모형)을 사용하여 러시아의 WTO 가입, 러시아ㆍEU FTA 및 한ㆍ러시아 FTA의 경제적 파급효과를 분석하고 시사점을 도출하였다. 서비스무역장벽으로 호주학자들의 빈도지수를 사용하여 GTAP 데이터베이스를 수정하고, 이를 토대로 상품부문 개방 시나리오의 결과와 상품 및 서비스 동시 개방 시나리오의 결과를 비교하였다. 본 논문의 주요 연구결과는 다음과 같다. (1) 제도개선이 수반되지 않는 한 WTO 가입에 따른 무역자유화의 효과는 제한적이다. (2) 서비스부문 무역자유화를 포함하더라도 WTO 가입에 따른 개방이익은 상품 무역자유화만의 효과와 비교해 볼 때 별로 증가하지 않는다. (3) CEEC 국가의 EU 가입 효과와 비교할 때, 러시아가 EU 가입으로 향유할 수 있는 개방이익의 증가는 크지 않다. (4) 한ㆍ러시아 FTA로 양국이 향유할 수 있는 무역자유화의 경제적 파급효과 또한 상당히 제한적이다. (5) 한ㆍ러 FTA 체결과 러시아의 WTO 가입의 순서가 FTA의 경제적 효과의 크기에 차별적인 영향을 발생시키지 못한다. (6) 러시아의 WTO 가입 또는 EU 및 한국과의 FTA 체결이 타 권역에 미치는 영향은 아주 작다.
Abstract
This paper estimates the economic impacts of the various liberalization scenarios of Russia (accession to the WTO, Russia-EU FTA, and Korea-Russia FTA) using GTAP recursive dynamic and capital accumulation models. To compare liberalization gains from goods liberalization with those from goods-and-services liberalization, the original GTAP database is adjusted by inputting Australian sectoral indices as barriers in the service trade. The major findings and implications of this paper are as follows. First, without simultaneous improvement of market institutions, Russia’s liberalization gains from its accession to the WTO are not so great. Second, the inclusion of the services sector in addition to the goods sector in the WTO liberalization scenarios does not greatly expand Russia’s economic benefits from trade. This is quite different from the case of China’s accession to the WTO. Third, Russia’s liberalization gains from the Russia-EU FTA are not so great, either. This result is in contrast to that of CEEC’s accession to the EU, where the CEEC enjoys large gains due to increases in FDI. Fourth, the economic effects of the Korea- Russia FTA on concerned countries are ignorable. Fifth, the sequencing issue regarding the Korea-Russia FTA, the FTA after Russia’s WTO accession or the FTA before the accession, has no meaning. Sixth, the negative economic impacts, such as trade diversion effects, of Russia's liberalization policies on external regions are also ignorable.
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