The Institutional Logic of Regional Denuclearization Robustness: A Case Study Based on Southeast Asia and Central Asia

Abstract

After denuclearization, a question arises in an increasingly turbulent international environment: Can regional denuclearization be sustained? Established research, including studies on security assurances, rational transactions, and norm diffusion, does not systematically address this question. This study argues that achieved regional denuclearization is not static, but rather exhibits dynamic robustness. Since institutionalization processes typically accompany formal regional denuclearization, the institutional logic derived from the regional denuclearization regime provides a possible explanation for this dynamic robustness. Benefit projection and institutional competition are the two independent variables originating from the relevant actors and institutional environment dimensions, respectively. Benefit projection alters the legitimacy of the regional denuclearization regime, thereby influencing its lock in effect on actors. Institutional competition alters the resilience of the institutional network centered on the regional denuclearization regime, thereby affecting the state of regional denuclearization norms within the regional nuclear order. Under the combined influence of these independent variables, regional denuclearization robustness manifests in four degrees. This study validates the hypotheses by analyzing the dynamics of denuclearization robustness in Southeast Asia and Central Asia after the establishment of Nuclear-Weapon-Free Zones.