불변시장점유율지수를 이용한 광양항과 인천항의 경쟁력 분해와 수출의 패널공적분벡터 추정

Abstract

The establishment of diplomatic relations with China in 1992 and the Chinese accession to the WTO in 2002 had been the most important events. In these years, the Korean foreign trade sector successfully specialised into product groups with a strongly growing demand. However, since 2001 the global economy has been changing. The world economy has to cope with rising raw material prices, including oil and agricultural products. As a consequence, shifts in income and demand changed the pattern of the global trade flows. Korea’s geographical distribution of exports reflects its high degree of economic integration with the other industrial countries, especially the neighbouring China, Japan and the U.S. Korea’s product specialisation reflects the importance of a few commodity groups, namely the group of machinery and vehicle products. However, the high geographical concentration and product specialisation of trade can be a source of vulnerability due to the sensitivity to cyclical fluctuations in the neighbouring countries and the U.S. In the last decade, the Gwangyang and Incheon ports also benefited from their location and from their specialisation. The two ports has suffered from cyclical fluctuations in the neighbouring countries. Changes of a port’s market share in the exports of domestic ports result from many interrelated factors. Therefore, the analysis of the export performance of a port should be put in perspective by analysing long periods to identify trends. This paper aims to show the development of competitiveness, product and geographical structure of the merchandise exports of Gwangyang and Incheon Port from 2005 to 2015 using constant market shares (CMS) analysis. Constant market shares analysis is a technique for analysing trading patterns and trends for the purpose of policy formulation. The technique also allows one to evaluate why the exports of one port may grow faster than those of other ports. This may occur if the commodities a port exports experience a relatively rapid growth in world trade (the commodity composition effect). It may also happen when a port exports to partners with relatively high import growth (the country composition effect). Finally, an exporting port may increase its market share in the imports of specific commodities in the importing countries (the competitiveness effect). This paper is relevant for Gwangyang and Incheon port because their export market shares have been showing different paths. The dynamic consideration of the CMS analysis, which the static indicators have been replaced by time series, helps to track all changes in the export structure and competitiveness of the Gwangyang and Incheon port over time. This paper shows that the TE of Gwangyang Port is on the decrease recently, resulting from the falling PSE, while that of Incheon Port is increasing due to the rising GSE. The number of items with the PSE risen in Incheon Port is larger than in Gwangyang Port. The Panel Cointegrating Vector indicates that the GSE influences the export of both Gwangyang and Incheon Port positively but the former’s GSE is smaller than the latter’s one. The GSE is a negative factor for the export of Gwangyang Port but is a positive factor for the export of Incheon Port. This study also shows that the PSE affects the export of Gwangyang Port negatively, while the PSE does that of Incheon Port positively.