성장률시차분석을 이용한 항만의 수출구조 분석: 광양항과 인천항
Growth-Rate Differential Analysis of Export Structure: The Case of Gwangyang and Incheon Ports
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본고는 광양항과 인천항의 10개 주요 수출품목의 중량을 이용하여 변이할당분석과 성장률시차분석을 적용하여 수출변동을 요인별로 분해한다. 광양항의 변이할당분석에서는 10개 품목 중 9개 품목의 지역할당효과가 양의 부호를 가지나 성장률시차분석에서는 대부분의 품목의 경쟁력요인이 음의 부호를 가져 두 분석이 상반된 결과를 보임을 밝힌다. 또한 변이할당분석의 산업구조효과와 지역할당효과가 양의 부호를 갖는 6개 품목 중 1개 품목만 성장률시차분석의 가중요인과 경쟁력요인이 양의 부호이며 나머지 5개 품목에서는 경쟁력우위가 감소하고 있음을 보인다. 인천항의 변이할당분석은 3개 품목에서 산업구조효과와 지역할당효과가 양의 부호를 가지나 성장률시차분석에서는 가중요인과 경쟁력요인이 모두 양의 부호를 갖는 품목이 없음을 보인다. 이러한 분석결과는 항만 수출구조와 경쟁력을 정확하게 분해하고 평가하기 위해서는 두 기법을 함께 적용해야 함을 의미한다.
Abstract
This study empirically examines the 10 export sectors in Gwangyang and Incheon Ports. As far as shift-share effect is concerned, for the Gwangyang Port, a positive regional competitive effect happens and is much greater than industry-mix effect in most of industries, while most of competitive components of regional growth rate differential analysis display negative signs. The signs of steel flate-rolled products, fine chemical material, synthetic rubber, favorite food and other metal ores are positive for industry-mix as well as regional shift effect. Their competitive advantage, however, tends to decline. The items such as fine chemical material and other metal ores have favorable structure at national level but are unfavorable at regional one. The shift-share analysis indicates that petroleum product, petrochemistry middle materials and paper materials have positive industry mix effect and regional competitive effect, while regional growth rate differential analysis reveals that there is no item with positive weight effect and positive rate effect for the Incheon Port.
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