Exploring a Method of Estimating Vehicle Miles of Travel
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초록
This research attempts to develop a statistical model that can analyze the impact of land use on vehicle use. By analyzing travel behavior data from 2009 National Household Travel Survey (NHTS) data, a sequential modeling approach with five sub‐models, called the SCAG NHTS Model, was developed to estimate the land use-travel behavior relationship, particularly for household Vehicle Miles of Travel (VMT). The SCAG NHTS Model was developed using the parcel database on socioeconomic and land use data. The test for model validity and sensitivity has shown that the SCAG NHTS Model produces reasonable and accountable results and is sensitive to land use characteristics. The SCAG NHTS Model also produced model results similar to SCAG’s trip‐based model. After running the model with SCAG 2012 Regional Transportation Plan scenario data, the SCAG NHTS Model estimates household VMT, which is 2.4 % lower than the trip‐based model.
Abstract
This research attempts to develop a statistical model that can analyze the impact of land use on vehicle use. By analyzing travel behavior data from 2009 National Household Travel Survey (NHTS) data, a sequential modeling approach with five sub‐models, called the SCAG NHTS Model, was developed to estimate the land use-travel behavior relationship, particularly for household Vehicle Miles of Travel (VMT). The SCAG NHTS Model was developed using the parcel database on socioeconomic and land use data. The test for model validity and sensitivity has shown that the SCAG NHTS Model produces reasonable and accountable results and is sensitive to land use characteristics. The SCAG NHTS Model also produced model results similar to SCAG’s trip‐based model. After running the model with SCAG 2012 Regional Transportation Plan scenario data, the SCAG NHTS Model estimates household VMT, which is 2.4 % lower than the trip‐based model.
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