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인도 대외정책의 연속성과 변화 분석: 모디 정부의 위협인식 변화에 따른 RCEP 가입 철회와 IPEF 가입 사례연구

Analysis of Continuity and Change in India’s External Strategy and Foreign Policy: A Case Study on Modi Government’s Threat Perception Changes and Withdrawal from RCEP to Joining IPEF

이현익|조원선
한국인도학회 (The Korean Society for Indian Studies)|2024.04|인도연구 (Journal of Indian Studies)|제29권 제1호|pp. 81-142

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전략India인도Strategy대외정책전망이론위협인식Threat Perception외교정책Foreign PolicyManifesto매니페스토Prospect Theory모디 정부Modi인도 외교부다중동맹External AffairMinistry of External AffairsMultialignment

초록

인도 대외정책의 연속성과 변화는 시기별로 어떻게 구분되는가? 모디 정부 1기와 2기에서는 왜 그리고 어떻게 대외전략을 다르게 구사하는가? 본 연구 질문에 답하기 위해 먼저 인도 대외정책의 연속성과 변화를 대외전략 원칙 및 방향성의 전환을 중심으로 역사적으로 고찰한다. 그 결과 인도 대외전략의 방향성은 시기별로 ‘이상주의적 비동맹주의(1947~1962)’, ‘현실주의적 비동맹주의와 전략적 자율성 확보(1962~1991)’, ‘국제질서에 적극적 참여와 경제회복(1991~2001)’, ‘경제적 목표를 위한 적극적 관여 및 자유주의 국제질서 하 국제적 위상 확보(2001~2018)’ 그리고 모디 정부 2기(2019~)부터 ‘경제안보를 위한 전략적 관여 및 능동적 공급망 재편을 통한 자급자족과 국제적 위상 확립’으로 변화했음을 보여준다. 각 시기별 전략적 원칙에 따라 ‘연속적’인 대외정책이 나타나며 인도 대외정책이 지정학적 세력 균형과 현상유지, 물질적 역량 확보, 국제적 위상 및 리더십이라는 핵심이익을 중심으로 시행되었다는 것을 밝힌다. 그래서 모디 정부 2기에서는 핵심이익에 대한 인식의 변화가 있었으며 이에 따라 RCEP 참여를 철회하고 IPEF에 가입했다고 주장한다. 본 연구는 이를 증명하기 위해 모디 정부 1기와 2기의 핵심이익에 대한 위협인식 차이에 따른 대외전략의 변화를 전망이론 관점에서 실증적 사료인 인도 정당의 매니페스토와 인도 외교부(Minister of External Affairs)의 연례보고서 및 공식 자료들을 근거로 역사적𐄁이론적 사례연구를 통해 분석한다. 이를 기반으로 본 연구는 모디 정부 1기와 2기의 핵심이익에 대한 위협인식 차이가 대외정책의 차이로 나타났으며 이에 따라 새로운 대외전략 원칙이 세워졌다고 주장한다. 즉 새로운 대외전략의 원칙이 나타나고 이러한 원칙 하 연속적인 정책들이 만들어진다. 이러한 맥락에서 본 연구는 모디 정부가 RCEP 가입을 철회하고 IPEF에 가입한 것은 명백한 모디 정부 2기 고유의 인식이 반영되었으며 확보된 핵심이익을 손실하지 않기 위한 행동이었다고 주장한다.

Abstract

How are the continuity and changes in India’s foreign policy distinguished across different periods? Why and how does the Modi government employ different foreign strategies during its first and second terms? To answer these research questions, the research begins with a historical overview of India’s foreign policy evolution, identifying pivotal changes from the era of idealistic non-alignment (1947–1962), to realistic non-alignment with an emphasis on strategic autonomy (1962–1991), followed by active participation in the international order for economic recovery (1991–2001), and a phase of proactive engagement for economic goals within a liberal international order to enhance international stature (2001–2018), to Modi's second term (2019 onwards), characterized by strategic engagement for economic security and international status enhancement. This period marks a shift towards self-reliance and active supply chain reconfiguration, underlining a strategic pivot in response to global economic and geopolitical dynamics. This analysis reveals that India’s foreign policy consistently applies strategic principles unique to each period, aimed at securing core and vital interests—the geopolitical balance of power and status quo, material power and capacity enhancement, and international stature and leadership with soft power. Under these strategic principles, continuous foreign policies are maintained. Utilizing prospect theory and a historical-theoretical case study approach, the study delves into the empirical evidence from Indian political manifestos, the Ministry of External Affairs' annual reports, and other official documents to articulate how shifts in threat perceptions have influenced India's strategic decisions. Notably, it examines the recalibration of core interests that prompted India's withdrawal from the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) and its subsequent engagement with the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF). Building on this analysis, the study posits that differences in threat perceptions of core interests between Prime Minister Narendra Modi's first and second terms have driven distinct changes in India's foreign policy, leading to the formulation of new strategic principles. This framework has guided the implementation of continuous policies under the stregic principles. Specifically, the study argues that the Modi government's decision to withdraw from RCEP and join IPEF reflects a strategic recalibration unique to Modi's second term, undertaken to safeguard these core interests without incurring losses.

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