비동맹국가 헤징전략의 지속가능성 탐색: 인도의 사례를 중심으로
Is Non-Aligned Countries’ Hedging Sustainable: The Case of India
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이 글은 헤징의 효율성 관점에서 비동맹국가의 헤징전략 양상을 분석함으로써 그 지속가능성을 고찰하는 것을 목적으로 한다. 이를 위해 효율적인 헤징의 조건을 제시하고, 그것을바탕으로 냉전기 비동맹운동을 주도했고 현재는 글로벌 사우스(Global South)의 리더를자임하는 인도의 외교전략을 분석하였다. 효율적인 헤징전략은 잠재적 위험과 전략 비용의 고려에 따른 대안의 선택, 복수의 강대국에 대한 공평하고 모호한 신호 발신, 다층적·중층적 제휴와 네트워크 확대를 통해 이루어진다. 인도는 중국이 초래하는 위험을 회피하기위해 미국과의 안보협력을 적극적으로 강화하는 '강한 헤징'을 구사하였다. 또한 강한 헤징전략이 수반하는 비용을 완화하기 위해 미중 양국에게 누구의 편도 들지 않을 것이라는 모호한 신호를 발신하고, 다층적인 양자 협력관계와 중층적인 소다자 및 다자 네트워크를 적극적으로 형성하였다. 이를 통해 인도는 잠재적 위험의 실현가능성을 낮추고 실리를 확보하는 동시에 비동맹국가로서 전략적 자율성을 유지할 수 있었다. 인도가 헤징 과정에서 확보한 전략적 운신의 공간은 강대국 경쟁의 압박에 직면한 다른 중간국의 공간과 중첩되어확장될 가능성이 있다. 이러한 점에서 비동맹국가의 헤징은 비동맹주의를 명분으로 실리를 쫓는 기회주의적인 전략이라기보다는 능동적 사고와 전략적 수단의 축적을 통해 다극질서를 지향하는 노력의 일환으로, 인도와 같은 역량과 위치권력을 보유한 국가를 중심으로 국제질서 재편에 영향을 미치는 전략으로 지속될 수 있다.
Abstract
This article aims to examine the sustainability of non-aligned countries' hedging strategies from the perspective of efficiency. It presents the conditions for effective hedging and analyzes India's diplomatic strategy, which led the non-aligned movement during the Cold War era and now seeks to become a leader in the Global South. Effective hedging strategies involve selecting alternatives based on the consideration of potential risks and strategic costs, issuing fair and ambiguous signals to multiple great powers, and expanding multilayered and intermediate alliances and networks. India has employed a hard hedging strategy, actively enhancing security cooperation with the United States to avoid critical risks from China. Additionally, to mitigate the costs associated with hard hedging strategies, India has sent ambiguous signals to both the United States and China, while forming multilayered bilateral cooperation and intermediate and multilateral networks. Through these efforts, India has been able to reduce the feasibility of potential risks and secure leverage while maintaining strategic autonomy as a non-aligned country. The space India has secured through hedging may expand, overlapping with the space of maneuver secured by other middle powers facing pressure from great power competition. In this regard, the hedging of non-aligned countries may be sustainable not merely as opportunistic strategies driven by pragmatism under the pretext of non-alignment, but rather as efforts to pursue a multi polar order through proactive thinking and the accumulation of strategic means, influencing the international order restructuring, with countries like India possessing capabilities and positional power at its center.
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