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신고전적 현실주의(Neoclassical Realism)와 인도 외교정책: 비교 관점에서 본 변화하는 인도의 러시아 관계

Neoclassical Realism and Indian Foreign Policy: Explaining the Changing Dynamics of India’s Russia Relations in Comparative Perspective

RAJIV KUMAR
한국아시아학회 (The Korean Association Of Asian Studies(Kaas))|2022.02|아시아연구 (The Journal of Asian Studies)|제25권 제1호|pp. 445-462|DOI 10.21740/jas.2022.02.25.1.467

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India인도외교정책Foreign Policy신고전적 현실주의Neoclassical Realism세력균형Balance of Power인도-러시아 관계인도-미국 관계India-Russia RelationsIndia-US Relations
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초록

본 논문은 신고전적 현실주의(Neoclassical Realism)이론을 바탕으로 현대 인도의 외교정책이 강대국 정치에 대해 어떻게 변화하고 있는지를 설명하고자 한다. 본 논문은 인도-미국 관계와 비교하여 인도와 러시아 관계의 새로운 변화를 설명하는 데 초점을 맞추고 있다. 신고전적 현실주의는 국제 정치에서 국가 행동을 형성하는 가장 중요한 요소는 세력균형(balance of power)의 변화와 같은 구조적으로 유도된 제약이라고 주장한다. 이러한 신고전적 현실주의의 논리는 인도와 러시아의 관계 변화를 비교적인 관점에서 설명하는데 있어 중요하다. 쉽게 말하자면 중국의 부상에 따른 아시아의 세력균형 변화와 중국의 자기주장 강화가 맞물려 인도는 인도-태평양의 미국 등 자유민주주의 국가들과의 안보.경제 관계를 강화시킬 수밖에 없었다. 이 새로운 지정학적 환경은 현대 인도와 러시아의 관계에 심각한 영향을 끼쳤다. 본 논문은 인도의 러시아와의 안보 및 경제 관계는 악화되었지만, 인도와 미국의 안보 및 경제 관계는 강화되었음을 시사한다. 반면 국내 수준의 역학관계가 양국 관계에 구조적으로 유발된 제약을 완화할 수 있다는 신고전적 현실주의의 주장처럼, 인도의 국내 역학에서 발생한 지경학적 문제는 인도와 러시아의 유대관계에서 작용하는 세력균형 정치의 영향력을 완화시키는 역할을 하고 있다. 본 논문은 인도 외교정책의 새로운 변화를 설명하기 위해 신고전적 현실주의의 이론을 적용하여 기존 문헌에 이론적으로 기여하고자 한다.

Abstract

Drawing on neoclassical realism theory, this paper aims to explain why and describe how contemporary Indian foreign policy is changing with respect to great power politics. It focuses on explaining new changes in India's relations with Russia in comparison with India–US relations. Neoclassical realism suggests that the most significant factor shaping state behavior in international politics is structurally-induced constraints, such as the changing balance of power. This neoclassical realism logic is significant in explaining India's shifting trajectory with Russia in a comparative perspective. To put it simply, the changing balance of power in Asia due to China's rise, combined with Beijing's growing assertiveness, has forced India to deepen its security and economic ties with the US and other liberal democracies in the Indo-pacific. This new geopolitical development has seriously affected contemporary India-Russia ties. This paper demonstrates that: on the one hand, India's security and economic relations with Russia have declined; on the other hand, India’s economic and security relations with the US have strengthened. Yet, as neoclassical realism suggests domestic level dynamics may mitigate structurally-induced constraints in bilateral relations, India’s domestically-generated geoeconomic issues also play roles in mitigating the effects of the balance of power politics in New Delhi's ties with Moscow. This paper seeks to make theoretical contributions to the existing literature by applying neoclassical realism theory to explain new dynamics in Indian foreign policy.

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