부시대통령 지지도 분석
Analysis of Bush Popularity
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Abstract
This study analyzed President George Bush popularity compared to Senator John Kerry by using national survey data gathered around October, 2003 by a joint ABC Broadcasting and Washington Post survey. Traditional factors that have been important in analysis of presidential popularity such as gender or income did not work this election. This may indicate America is in a critical state and needs other valuable factors to explain who is more popular other than the traditional factors. The most important issue is the economy. The poll shows that most Americans are not satisfied with the nation's economy and this works positively for Kerry, while at the same time it works negatively against Bush. Furthermore, the American voters' discontent with national financial status also is working adversely against Bush. However, as most Americans become more satisfied with their personal finance than before, Bush's popularity seems to go up. Thus what really matters in order to win the election is that how much the American economy will improve and how much Americans realize economic recovery by the election date. Another major factor for the election is the Iraq War. Since no mass-destruction facilities were not found and the war may turn into longer-term war just like the Vietnam War, Bush's popularity was severely affected. In short, whoever wins this presidential election will have to depend on the American economy and how the Iraq War develops. While the ABC & Washington Post data is the most recent data available, there is a big gap between the time when the data was gathered and the election date. Nonetheless this study will be useful in providing a general picture of the 2004 presidential election.
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