2004 미국 大選 평가와 전망: 공화당 상승세 정체와 양극화, 약화되는 일방주의의 기반
Electoral Mandate of 2004 Presidential Election and its Prospect
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Abstract
The major claim of this paper is that the main force underlying Bush's reelection is the long-term shift in macropartisanship in favor of the Republican party rather than the increasing conservatives in terms of self-identified political ideology. The 2004 presidential election is also characterized by extreme bi-polarization lined up under party identification. Contrary to the conventional wisdom, the so-called "rally round the flag impact" is not observed in this election. Based on these findings, it is claimed that the long-term shift in favor of the Republican party is on its peak with downturn ahead. Taking the American-style electoral college system into account, despite Bush's reelection, his second term does not seem so bright. It is forecasted that the second Bush administration would hesitate to follow its own footprint of unilateral approach to international issues.
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