시민 예측(Citizen Forecasting)으로 본 2024 미국 대선 전망
The 2024 U.S. Presidential Election Forecast Based on Citizen Forecasting
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초록
이 연구는 2024년 미국 대선을 앞두고 시민 예측(Citizen Forecasting) 모델의 유효성과 정확성을 평가하는 것을 목적으로 한다. 시민 예측 모델은 전통적인 여론조사보다 더 포괄적이고 다차원적인 정보를 반영할 수 있는 강점을 지니고 있으며, 특히 집단적 판단의 정확성을 활용하여 선거 결과를 예측하는 데 유용한 도구로 자리잡고 있다. 본 연구는 시민 예측 모델이 미국 대선에서 얼마나 효과적으로 적용될 수 있는지를 실증적으로 평가하고, 전통적인 투표 의향 모델과 비교하여 그 장점과 한계를 분석한다. 또한, 제3의 후보 등장과 같은 예기치 못한 정치적 변수들이 선거 결과에 미치는 영향을 고려하여 시민 예측 모델의 유연성과 적용 가능성을 논의한다. 이를 통해 시민 예측 모델이 선거 예측에서 가지는 잠재적 가치를 학술적으로 고찰한다.
Abstract
This study aims to evaluate the effectiveness and accuracy of the Citizen Forecasting model in the context of the 2024 U.S. presidential election. The Citizen Forecasting model has the advantage of reflecting more comprehensive and multidimensional information compared to traditional polling methods and has established itself as a useful tool for predicting election outcomes by leveraging the accuracy of collective judgment. This study empirically assesses how effectively the Citizen Forecasting model can be applied to the U.S. presidential election and analyzes its strengths and limitations in comparison to traditional vote intention models. Additionally, the study discusses the flexibility and applicability of the Citizen Forecasting model by considering the impact of unexpected political variables, such as the emergence of a third candidate, on election outcomes. Through this analysis, the study academically examines the potential value of the Citizen Forecasting model in election forecasting.
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