2024 미국 대선 예측 모형: 유용성과 한계
Forecasting Models for the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election: Utilities and Limitations
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초록
이 논문은 2024년 미국 대통령 선거를 예측하기 위해 사용되는 주요 모형들을 분석하고, 이들의 유용성과 한계를 평가하는 데 목적이 있다. 논의의 초점은 예측모형의 주류라고 할 수 있는 정치경제모형과 선거주기모형(권력교체주기모형과 예비선거모형)에 두어지며 각 모형의 이론적 기반과 예측 정확치, 그리고 한계를 평가하는 데에 두어졌다. 정치경제모형은 대통령의 국정 지지율과 경제 지표를 주요 변수로 삼아 선거 결과를 예측하며, 이에 기반하면 2024년 대선은 민주당의 패배가 예측된다. 현직자 평가와 함께 미국 대선의 권력교체주기를 고려한 권력교체주기모형과 선거주기와 예비선거경쟁력에 초점을 맞추는 예비선거모형에 기반하면 민주당의 승리가 전망된다. 이러한 전망의 불일치는 정파적 양극화, 대중투표와 선거인단 투표 간의 괴리 등과 같은 최근 미국 정치의 포괄적인 변화가 예측 모형의 신뢰성과 유용성을 제약하고 있음을 보여주는 것이다. 결론적으로 본 논문은 2024년 대선에 대한 주요 예측 모형들이 변화하는 정치환경에서 예측의 불확실성이 커지고 있음을 보여주며, 예측 모형의 결과를 단순히 수치로 받아들이기보다는 변화하는 정치적, 사회적 요인들을 고려한 심층적 분석이 필요하다고 제언한다.
Abstract
This paper aims to analyze the forecasting models used to predict the 2024 U.S. presidential election, assessing their utility and limitations. The focus of the discussion is on the mainstream forecasting models, namely the Political Economy Model and Election Cycle Models (including the Time-for-Change Model and Primary Model). The paper evaluates the theoretical foundations, predictive accuracy, and limitations of each model. The Political Economy Model predicts election outcomes based on key variables such as presidential approval ratings and economic indicators, and it suggests a Democratic defeat in the 2024 election. In contrast, the Time-for-Change Model, which considers the U.S. presidential election’s power transition cycle along with incumbent performance, and the Primary Model, which emphasizes election cycles and primary election competitiveness, both forecast a Democratic victory. The inconsistency in these predictions highlights how comprehensive changes in recent American politics—such as partisan polarization and the growing divergence between the popular vote and Electoral College outcomes—are constraining the reliability and utility of these predictive models. In conclusion, this paper demonstrates that the major forecasting models for the 2024 election are facing increased uncertainty due to the evolving political environment. It suggests that rather than simply accepting the models’ results as numerical predictions, a deeper analysis that takes into account the changing political and social factors is necessary.
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