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미국 대선 예측 연구의 과거와 현재: 이론과 방법론

The Past and Present of Forecasting American National Election: Theories and Methods

신계균
미래정치연구소 (Korea Institute for Future Politics)|2012.02|미래정치연구 (JOURNAL OF FUTURE POLITICS)|제2권 제1호|pp. 5-36|DOI 10.20973/jofp.2012.2.1.5

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참고문헌

키워드

대통령 지지율예비선거대통령 선거 예측경제 변수임기 변수

초록

누가 과연 다음 대통령 선거에서 당선될 것인가? 어떻게 미리 그 결과를 예측할 수 있을 것인가? 이들 질문들은 미국 대통령 선거가 1년이라는 긴 시간을 통해 진행되는 만큼, 선거를 앞둔 유권자들 사이에 가장 흥미 있는 질문들일 것이다. 하지만 이러한 질문들에 대해 선거 과정 그 자체의 이론적 설명에 초점을 두는 연구들은 효과적인 답변을 내놓지 못하는 반면, 선거 결과에 대한 예측의 정확성에 중점을 두는 연구들은 상대적으로 설득력 있는 답변을 내어 놓을 수 있었다. 최근 30년간 미국 정치학회의 선거 예측 연구는 정확한 예측을 위한 비약적인 이론적 방법론적 성과가 있어왔다. 초기 연구는 대통령의 지지율과 실제 득표율에서 밀접한 관계를 지적했고, 이후 지지율과 함께 재임기간 중 현직의 경제적 업무 수행 변수를 덧붙임으로써 선거 결과에 있어 보다 정확한 예측을 시도하였다. 이러한 지지율 변수와 경제 변수를 중심에 둘 때, 최근 많은 연구들은 임기, 유권자 선호, 예비선거 결과, 재정 정책 등과 같은 보다 지속적이고 설득력 있는 변수들을 모델에 포함시킴으로써 더 정교한 예측 모델을 구축하는 데 집중하였다. 이러한 미국 대선 예측 연구를 검토함으로써, 본 연구는 어떻게 미국 정치학회의 대선 예측 연구들이 진행되어 왔고, 이를 토대로 어떻게 2012년 미국 대선이 예측 될 수 있는지, 그리고 이러한 미국적 선거 예측 모델이 얼마나 효과적으로 한국 대선 예측 연구에 적용될 수 있는지 간략히 언급한다.

Abstract

Who will win the next presidential election? How would you make a prediction? These questions are uppermost on nearly everyone's mind as American presidential campaign goes through a year. While most of political scientists have not sufficiently answered these questions by paying more attention to explanatory research on elections, empirical political scientists have provided a dynamic prediction by focusing on the issue of the accuracy of forecasting elections. The election-forecasting research is now more than three decades and continue to grow both in its volume and in the accuracy of models and their evaluation. The earliest forecasting models provided a significant association between presidential popularity and presidential vote. Soon thereafter, some forecasting studies created a core forecasting equation by combining an indicator of economic conditions and presidential popularity. After that, a number of new and intriguing models were developed, and these models added to the core variables several ideas, such as “time for a change” variable that says a longer staying in presidency by one party negatively impress the public, trial-heat or preference poll responses, primary results, fiscal policy, and so on. Based on these past and present studies, the purpose of this study is to explain how the recent studies of presidential election forecasting models have developed, how 2012 American presidential elections can be predicted based on the existing forecasting models, and what Korean forecasting scholars can learn from the American forecasting models.

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