본문 바로가기
KERD
논문KCI 등재

Chicken Pax Atomica: The Cold War Stability of Nuclear Deterrence

0

조회

0

다운로드

0

인용

0

참고문헌

키워드

주제분류정치외교학

초록

Nuclear weapons, long considered the bête noire of human existence are examined in this article to ascertain if the heinous effects they threaten ultimately serve to promote deterrence between pairs of states. The findings suggest that nuclear weapons did have a significant impact on conflict when present on both sides of dyadic disputes during the Cold War. In such symmetrical nuclear pairs conflict levels are quantitatively shown to be reduced, suggesting that the conflict inhibiting qualities of these weapons long espoused by nuclear optimists are legitimate.

Abstract

Nuclear weapons, long considered the bête noire of human existence are examined in this article to ascertain if the heinous effects they threaten ultimately serve to promote deterrence between pairs of states. The findings suggest that nuclear weapons did have a significant impact on conflict when present on both sides of dyadic disputes during the Cold War. In such symmetrical nuclear pairs conflict levels are quantitatively shown to be reduced, suggesting that the conflict inhibiting qualities of these weapons long espoused by nuclear optimists are legitimate.

참고문헌 (93)

  1. Bailey, Kathleen, "Doomsday Weapons in the Hands of Many" (1991), University of Illinois Press
  2. Barbieri, Katherine, "Economic Interdependence: A Path to Peace or a Source of Interstate Conflict?", Journal of Peace Research, 33, pp.29~49 (1996)
  3. Barbieri, Katherine, "Economic Interdependence and Militarized Interstate Conflict, 1870-1985" (1985), Binghamton University
  4. Bremer, Stuart A., "Dangerous Dyads: Conditions Affecting the Likelihood of Interstate War, 1816-1965", Journal of Conflict Resolution, 36, pp.309~341 (1992)
  5. Bremer, Stuart A., "Advancing the Scientific Study of War", International Interactions, 19, pp.1~26 (1993)
  6. Bremer, Stuart A., "Democracy and Militarized Interstate Conflict", International Interactions, 18, pp.231~250 (1993)
  7. Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce, "The War Trap" (1981), Yale University Press
  8. Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce, "Assessment of the Merits of Selective Nuclear Proliferation", Journal of Conflict Resolution, 26, pp.283~306 (1982)
  9. Bundy, McGeorge, "Danger and Survival: Choices About the Bomb in the First Fifty Years" (1988), Random House
  10. Burns, Arthur Lee, "From Balance to Deterrence: A Theoretical Analysis", World Politics, 9, pp.494~529 (1957)
  11. Cambone, Stephen, "The Future of US Nuclear Policy", Survival, 36, pp.73~95 (1994)
  12. Chan, Steve, ", Mirror on the Wall ... Are the Freer Countries More Pacific", Journal of Conflict Resolution, 33, pp.617~648 (1984)
  13. Diehl, Paul, "Contiguity and Military Escalation in Major Power Rivalries, 1816-1980", Journal of Politics, 47, pp.1203~1211 (1985)
  14. The Direction of Trade Statistics Yearbook, "IMF Statistics Department" (1956), Real Sector Division
  15. Dixon, William J., "Democracy and the Peaceful Settlement of Conflict", Journal of Conflict Resolution, 37, pp.42~68 (1993)
  16. Doty, Paul, "The Role of the Smaller Powers", Daedalus, 89, pp.818~830 (1960)
  17. Dulles, Eleanor Lansing, "Detente: Cold War Strategies in Transition" (1964), Praeger
  18. Feldman, Shai, "Is There a Proliferation Debate?", Security Studies, 4, pp.787~792 (1995)
  19. Freedman, Lawrence, "I Exist; Therefore I Deter", International Security, 13, pp.177~195 (1988)
  20. Gaddis, John, "The Long Peace" (1990), Oxford University Press
  21. Gallois, Peter M., "The Balance of Terror: Strategy for the Nuclear Age" (1961), Houghton-Mifflin
  22. Garnham, David, "Dyadic International War, 1816-1965: The Role of Power Parity and Geographical Proximity", Western Political Quarterly, 29, pp.231~242 (1976)
  23. Garnham, David, "Power Parity and Lethal International Violence, 1969-1973", Journal of Conflict Resolution, 20, pp.379~394 (1976)
  24. Gasiorowski, Mark J., "Conflict and Interdependence: East-West Trade and Linkages in the Era of Detente", Journal of Conflict Resolution, 26, pp.709~729 (1982)
  25. Geller, Daniel S., "Nuclear Weapons, Deterrence, and Crisis Escalation", Journal of Conflict Resolution, 34, pp.291~310 (1990)
  26. Geller, Daniel S., "Power Differentials and War in Rival Dyads", International Studies Quarterly, 37, pp.173~193 (1993)
  27. George, Alexander, "Avoiding War: Problems of Crisis Management" (1991), Westview Press
  28. George, Alexander, "The Limits of Coercive Diplomacy" (1971), Little Brown
  29. George, Alexander L., "The Limits of Coercive Diplomacy" (1994), Westview Press
  30. Gilpin, Robert, "American Scientists and Nuclear Weapons" (1962), Princeton University Press
  31. Glaser, Charles L., "The Flawed Case for Nuclear Disarmament", Survival, 40, pp.112~128 (1998)
  32. Gochman, Charles, "Militarized Interstate Disputes, 1816-1976: Procedures, Patterns, and Insights", Journal of Conflict Resolution, 28, pp.586~615 (1984)
  33. Gray, Colin, "Nuclear Strategy: A Case for a Theory of Victory", International Security, 4, pp.66~77 (1979)
  34. Gray, Colin, "Nuclear Strategy: What is True, What is False, What is Arguable", Comparative Strategy, 9, pp.1~32 (1990)
  35. Gray, Colin, "Deterrence and Regional Conflict: Hopes, Fallacies, and ‘Fixes’", Comparative Strategy, 17, pp.45~62 (1998)
  36. Harkavy, Robert E., "Triangular or Indirect Deterrence", Compellence: Something New in Deterrence Theory?, 1998, pp.17, 63~81
  37. Ikle, Fred Charles, "Nth Countries and Disarmament", Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 16, pp.391~394 (1960)
  38. International Financial Statistics, "Washington,D.C.:IMF Statistics Department" (1956), IMF Statistics Department
  39. Jaggers, Keith, "Tracking Democracy’s Third Wave with the Polity III Data", Journal of Peace Research, 32, pp.469~482 (1995)
  40. Jervis,Robert, "The Meaning of the Nuclear Revolution" (1989), Cornell University Press
  41. Jones, Daniel M., "Militarized Interstate Disputes, 1816-1992: Rationale, Coding Rules, and Empirical Patterns", Conflict Management and Peace Science, 15(2) (1997)
  42. Kahn, Herman, "On Escalation: Metaphors and Scenarios" (1965), Praeger
  43. Kant, Immanuel, "Kant’s Political Writings" (1970), Cambridge University Press
  44. Kaplan, Morton, "System and Process in International Politics" (1957), Wiley
  45. Kim,Woosang, "Alliance Transitions and Great Power War", American Journal of Political Science, 35, pp.833~850 (1991)
  46. Kraig, Michael T., "Nuclear Deterrence in the Developing World: A Game-Theoretic Treatment", Journal of Peace Research, 36, pp.141~167 (1999)
  47. Lavoy, Peter R., "The Strategic Consequences of Nuclear Proliferation", Security Studies, 4, pp.695~753 (1995)
  48. Leng, and Russell J., "Dangerous Disputes: A Study of Conflict Behavior and War", American Journal of Political Science, 26, pp.664~687 (1982)
  49. Mansfield, Edward D., "Democratization and the Danger of War", International Security Summer, pp.5~38 (1995)
  50. Maoz, Zeev, "Resolve, Capabilites, and the Outcomes of Interstate Disputes", Journal of Conflict Resolution, 27, pp.195~229 (1983)
  51. Mearsheimer, John J., "Back to the Future: Instability in Europe After the Cold War", International Security, 15, pp.5~56 (1990)
  52. Morgan, Patrick, "Deterrence: A Conceptual Analysis. Beverly Hills" (1977), Sage
  53. Morgenthau,Hans, "Politics Among Nations" (1979), Knopf
  54. Nye,Joseph S, "Sustaining Non-Proliferation in the 1980s", Survival, 23, pp.98~107 (1981)
  55. Organski, A.F.K., "The War Ledger" (1980), University of Chicago Press
  56. Payne, Keith B., "The Case Against Nuclear Abolition and for Nuclear Deterrence", Comparative Strategy, 17 (1998)
  57. Payne, Keith B., "Post-Cold War Requirements for US Nuclear Deterrence Policy", Comparative Strategy, 17, pp.227~277 (1998)
  58. Polachek, Solomon W., "Conflict and Trade", Journal of Conflict Resolution, 24, pp.55~78 (1980)
  59. Pollins, Brain M., "Does Trade Still Follow the Flag?", American Political Science Review, 83, pp.465~480 (1989)
  60. Ray, James Lee, "Status Inconsistency and War Involvement in Europe, 1816-1970", Papers of the Peace Science Society, 23, pp.69~80 (1970)
  61. Reiter, Dan, "Democracy, War Initiation and Victory", American Political Science Review, 92, pp.377~390 (1998)
  62. Rosecrance, Richard, "Action and Reaction in World Politics" (1963), Little Brown
  63. Rosenau, James, "International Politics and Foreign Policy" (1969), Free Press
  64. Russett, Bruce M., "International Regions and the International System" (1967), Rand McNally & Co
  65. Russett, Bruce M., "Controlling the Sword: The Democratic Governance of National Security" (1990), Harvard University Press
  66. Russett,Bruce M., "Grasping the Democratic Peace: Principles for the Post-Cold War World", Princeton University Press, ~ (1993)
  67. Russett, Bruce M., "The Democratic Peace: And Yet it Moves", International Security, 19, pp.164~175 (1995)
  68. Sandoval, R. Robert, "Consider the Porcupine: Another View of Nuclear Proliferation", Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 32, pp.19~ (1976)
  69. Schell, Jonathan, "The Fate of the Earth" (1982), Knopf
  70. Schell, Jonathan, "The Abolition" (1984), Knopf
  71. Schelling,Thomas C, "The Strategy of Conflict" (1960), Oxford University Press
  72. Schelling,Thomas C, "Arms and Influence" (1966), Yale University Press
  73. Senese,Paul, "Geographical Proximity and Issue Salience: Their Effects on the Escalation of Militarized Interstate Conflict", Conflict Management and Peace Science, 15, pp.133~161 (1996)
  74. Senese,Paul, "The Effect of Joint Democracy on Interstate Conflict Escalation", Journal of Politics, 59, pp.1~27 (1997)
  75. Singer, J. David, "The Wages of War: 1816-1965" (1972), John Wiley
  76. Small, Melvin, "Resort to Arms. Beverly Hills" (1982), Sage
  77. Smoke,Richard, "War: Controlling Escalation. Cambridge" (1977), Harvard University Press
  78. Snyder, Glenn H., "Deterrence and Defense" (1961), Princeton University Press
  79. Snyder,Glenn H., "Conflict Among Nations. Princeton" (1977), Princeton University Press
  80. Spector, Leonard, "Nuclear Ambitions. Boulder" (1990), Westview Press
  81. Spector, Leonard, "Neo-Nonproliferation", Survival, 37, pp.66~85 (1995)
  82. Tzu, Sun, "The Art of War" (1963), Oxford University Press
  83. Vasquez, John A., "The War Puzzle" (1993), Cambridge University Press
  84. Vasquez,John A., "Why Do Neighbors Fight? Proximity, Interaction, or Territoriality", Journal of Peace Research, 32, pp.277~293 (1995)
  85. Viner, Jacob, "The Implications of the Atomic Bomb for International Relations", Proceedings of the American Philosophical Society, 90 (1946)
  86. Waltz, Kenneth, "Theory of International Politics. Reading" (1979), Addison-Wesley
  87. Waltz, Kenneth, "The Spread of Nuclear Weapons: More May Be Better" (1981), International Institute for Strategic Studies
  88. Waltz, Kenneth, "Nuclear Myths and Political Realities", American Political Science Review, pp.731~745 (1990)
  89. Waltz, Kenneth, "The Emerging Structure of International Politics", International Security, 18, pp.44~79 (1993)
  90. Ward, Michael D., "Democratizing for Peace", American Political Science Review, 92, pp.51~62 (1998)
  91. Weede, Erich, "Extended Deterrence, Superpower Control, and Militarized Inerstate Disputes, 1962-1976", Journal of Peace Research, 26, pp.7~17 (1976)
  92. Weltman, John, "World Politics and the Evolution of War" (1995), Johns Hopkins Press
  93. Young, Oran R., "The Politics of Force: Bargaining During International Crises Princeton" (1968), Princeton University Press

관련 논문AI추천

이 간행물의 다른 논문 (6건)