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Regional-centric Deterrence: Reassessing its Efficacy for South Asia

Rizwana Abbasi|Zulfqar Khan
한국국방연구원 (Korea Institute for Defense Analyses)|2013.12|The Korean Journal of Defense Analysis|제25권 제4호|pp. 489-501|DOI 10.22883/kjda.2013.25.4.004

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키워드

South Asianuclear deterrenceCold Start Doctrinecrisis stabilityRegional-centric deterrencetactical nuclear weapons (TNWs)escalation controlescalation dominanceconflict termination strategy and nuclear weapons

초록

It is generally believed that a stable nuclear deterrence averts wars between nuclear adversaries, and makes peace secure. This conceptual argument has merit in terms of the prevention of all-out war; but it does not fully address the need to prevent the outbreak of a limited war between two nuclear weapon states. India and Pakistan have already fought one limited war, Kargil, in a nuclear environment. These two relatively new nuclear weapon states rely on nuclear deterrence to address the external threats. While frequently occurring conflicts demonstrate this, a recurrence of limited war cannot be ruled out in this crisis-ridden region, which would be fraught with significant dangers of escalation. Using a qualitative research approach and deploying a structural deterrence theory as a conceptual guiding tool, this paper investigates the nuclear future of the region, including the prospects of war, conflict termination strategy, escalation control, escalation dominance mechanisms, and finally suggests some pertinent lessons for crisis stability.

Abstract

It is generally believed that a stable nuclear deterrence averts wars between nuclear adversaries, and makes peace secure. This conceptual argument has merit in terms of the prevention of all-out war; but it does not fully address the need to prevent the outbreak of a limited war between two nuclear weapon states. India and Pakistan have already fought one limited war, Kargil, in a nuclear environment. These two relatively new nuclear weapon states rely on nuclear deterrence to address the external threats. While frequently occurring conflicts demonstrate this, a recurrence of limited war cannot be ruled out in this crisis-ridden region, which would be fraught with significant dangers of escalation. Using a qualitative research approach and deploying a structural deterrence theory as a conceptual guiding tool, this paper investigates the nuclear future of the region, including the prospects of war, conflict termination strategy, escalation control, escalation dominance mechanisms, and finally suggests some pertinent lessons for crisis stability.

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관련 논문AI추천

Reassessing Deterrence Dynamics and Fragility of Peace in South AsiaRizwana Abbasi한국국방연구원 · The Korean Journal of Defense Analysis2016 · 제28권 제3호Strategizing for Deterrence Stability in South Asia: Looking for a Holistic ApproachZafar Khan한국국방연구원 · The Korean Journal of Defense Analysis2016 · 제28권 제3호India–Pakistan, Limited War and Lopsided Deterrence: A PerspectiveZulfqar Khan한국국방연구원 · The Korean Journal of Defense Analysis2018 · 제30권 제1호Is Nuclear Deterrence Workable at the Brink Time in South Asia and Beyond?Mohd Aminul Karim한국국방연구원 · The Korean Journal of Defense Analysis2014 · 제26권 제1호Conceptualizing India-Pakistan Competing Counterforce Strategies and Possibility of Conflict in South AsiaZafar Khan통일연구원 · International Journal of Korean Unification Studies2022 · 제31권 제1호Revisiting the Proposed Strategic Restraint Regime (SRR) between India and Pakistan: A Road Towards Sustaining Peace and Stability in South AsiaZafar Khan통일연구원 · International Journal of Korean Unification Studies2024 · 제33권 제2호

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