Methodology for Calculating North Korea’s Provocation Index Using Big Data Analysis
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On the Korean Peninsula, South Korea and North Korea remain the world’s only divided countries with a cease-fire. North Korea has been in power for more than 10 years after Kim Jong-un completed the third-generation hereditary succession. North Korea has been threatening South Korea’s security through nuclear tests, missile launches, and uncrewed aerial vehicles; therefore, a security evaluation method is necessary. However, Korea’s position has only been subjectively evaluated by evaluating the security situation based on the results of Korean media analyses or surveys by experts on the Korean Peninsula. To solve this problem, this study proposes a new index calculation methodology using big data analyses from South Korean, North Korean, and international media. The index calculation comprises indicators related to provocation in the North Korean media, indicators associated with the Korean situation, and indicators that objectively evaluate articles regarding the Korean Peninsula in the international media. North Korea’s Provocation Index was calculated as the weighted sum of the final calculated indicators. Applying North Korea’s Provocation Index to the Kim Jong-un regime confirmed that the index rose before and after North Korea’s provocation and was low during peacetime on the Korean Peninsula. Through the analysis of North Korea’s Provocation Index, North Korea’s Provocation Alert Index is proposed, categorizing the levels of provocation into five levels: “threat,” “caution,” “alert,” “concern,” and “safety,” allowing for an intuitive recognition of North Korea’s provocation trends.
Abstract
On the Korean Peninsula, South Korea and North Korea remain the world’s only divided countries with a cease-fire. North Korea has been in power for more than 10 years after Kim Jong-un completed the third-generation hereditary succession. North Korea has been threatening South Korea’s security through nuclear tests, missile launches, and uncrewed aerial vehicles; therefore, a security evaluation method is necessary. However, Korea’s position has only been subjectively evaluated by evaluating the security situation based on the results of Korean media analyses or surveys by experts on the Korean Peninsula. To solve this problem, this study proposes a new index calculation methodology using big data analyses from South Korean, North Korean, and international media. The index calculation comprises indicators related to provocation in the North Korean media, indicators associated with the Korean situation, and indicators that objectively evaluate articles regarding the Korean Peninsula in the international media. North Korea’s Provocation Index was calculated as the weighted sum of the final calculated indicators. Applying North Korea’s Provocation Index to the Kim Jong-un regime confirmed that the index rose before and after North Korea’s provocation and was low during peacetime on the Korean Peninsula. Through the analysis of North Korea’s Provocation Index, North Korea’s Provocation Alert Index is proposed, categorizing the levels of provocation into five levels: “threat,” “caution,” “alert,” “concern,” and “safety,” allowing for an intuitive recognition of North Korea’s provocation trends.