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Explanation of Mixed Results about the Reasons behind North Korea’s Provocations: Classifications and Applications of Multilevel Models

우병득
한국사회과학협의회 (Korean Social Science Research Council)|2023.06|Korean Social Science Journal|제50권 제1호|pp. 1-17|DOI 10.36033/kssj.50.1.202306.1

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참고문헌

주제분류사회과학일반

초록

After the breakdown of the 2019 Vietnam summit between the U.S. and North Korea and the improved nuclear capabilities of North Korea, North Korea’s provocations have been noticed by scholars again. Based on previous qualitative studies, researchers have continuously conducted quantitative studies to examine North Korea’s provocations. The increased number of available data makes it possible to apply sophisticated methods to unveil the reasons behind North Korea’s provocations. However, results from recent studies are inconsistent and even conflicting. Thus, this article aims to address possible reasons for those mixed results. Moreover, this article suggests a direct and indirect classification and an application of multilevel models to explain the conflicting results and enrich empirical studies about the provocations. By applying multilevel Poisson and negative binomial models to provocation data, this article finds that internal and external factors heterogeneously influence the number of total, direct, and indirect provocations.

Abstract

After the breakdown of the 2019 Vietnam summit between the U.S. and North Korea and the improved nuclear capabilities of North Korea, North Korea’s provocations have been noticed by scholars again. Based on previous qualitative studies, researchers have continuously conducted quantitative studies to examine North Korea’s provocations. The increased number of available data makes it possible to apply sophisticated methods to unveil the reasons behind North Korea’s provocations. However, results from recent studies are inconsistent and even conflicting. Thus, this article aims to address possible reasons for those mixed results. Moreover, this article suggests a direct and indirect classification and an application of multilevel models to explain the conflicting results and enrich empirical studies about the provocations. By applying multilevel Poisson and negative binomial models to provocation data, this article finds that internal and external factors heterogeneously influence the number of total, direct, and indirect provocations.

참고문헌 (35)

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