Why does North Korea Commit Provocations?
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On April 27, 2018, at the third two Koreas summit in South Korea, the president of South Korea Moon Jae-in and the chairman Kim Jong Un promised to open a new path of peace. The two Koreas seemed to successfully handle problems between them. However, based on the previous behaviors of North Korea, we should not be too optimistic. The reason why I write this paper in this peaceful mood is that paying attention to national security is always worthwhile. Many scholars have found several reasons for North Korea’s provocations against South Korea. However, there is a lack of empirical support regarding them. I try to test and nd the reasons for North Korea’s provocations. I use multivariate regression and Prais– Winsten regression to test my hypotheses. Domestic stability and power succession have statistically signicant relationships with the number of provocations, but the results are quite mixed.
Abstract
On April 27, 2018, at the third two Koreas summit in South Korea, the president of South Korea Moon Jae-in and the chairman Kim Jong Un promised to open a new path of peace. The two Koreas seemed to successfully handle problems between them. However, based on the previous behaviors of North Korea, we should not be too optimistic. The reason why I write this paper in this peaceful mood is that paying attention to national security is always worthwhile. Many scholars have found several reasons for North Korea’s provocations against South Korea. However, there is a lack of empirical support regarding them. I try to test and nd the reasons for North Korea’s provocations. I use multivariate regression and Prais– Winsten regression to test my hypotheses. Domestic stability and power succession have statistically signicant relationships with the number of provocations, but the results are quite mixed.
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