Mercosur FTA 정책과 한-Mercosur FTA 체결 가능성 추정
Mercosur FTA Policy and Estimating the Probability of Forming the Korea-Mercosur FTA
0
조회
0
다운로드
1
인용
0
참고문헌
키워드
초록
Not only economic factors and geographical distance but also socio-political proximity may be important determinants of forming regional trade agreements (RTAs). This paper empirically analyzes whether the socio-political factors and political ties have significant influences on the formation of RTAs. Cultural proximity is measured by the cultural indices such as language and religion, and political ties are measured by existence of military alliance and level of democracy. This paper applies qualitative choice model estimation techniques (pooled Probit model with cluster-robust standard errors) to panel data covering bilateral country-pairs among 195 countries between 1995 and 2010. Futhermore, we estimate the probability of forming Korea-Mercosur FTA as an application. We find that the RTA formation has been strongly and significantly driven by deepening socio-political linkages between members. Based on these empirical results, we also find that the likelihood of forming Korea-Mercosur FTA is significantly low.
Abstract
Not only economic factors and geographical distance but also socio-political proximity may be important determinants of forming regional trade agreements (RTAs). This paper empirically analyzes whether the socio-political factors and political ties have significant influences on the formation of RTAs. Cultural proximity is measured by the cultural indices such as language and religion, and political ties are measured by existence of military alliance and level of democracy. This paper applies qualitative choice model estimation techniques (pooled Probit model with cluster-robust standard errors) to panel data covering bilateral country-pairs among 195 countries between 1995 and 2010. Futhermore, we estimate the probability of forming Korea-Mercosur FTA as an application. We find that the RTA formation has been strongly and significantly driven by deepening socio-political linkages between members. Based on these empirical results, we also find that the likelihood of forming Korea-Mercosur FTA is significantly low.
참고문헌 (34)
- Anderson, James E., "Gravity with Gravitas : A Solution to the Border Puzzle", American Economic Review, 93, pp.170~192 (2003)
- "Cross-national Socioeconomic and Religion Data" (2005)[URL]
- Baier, S.L., "Economic Determinants of Free Trade Agreements", Journal of International Economics, 64, pp.29~63 (2004)
- Baier, S.L., "Bonus Vetus OLS : A Simple Approach for Approximating International Trade-cost Effects Using the Gravity Equation", Journal of International Economics, 77(1), pp.77~85 (2009)
- The Growth of Bilateralism, "Baier, S. L.", Centre for Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy, The University of Warwick, ~, pp.Working Paper, No. 12 (2010)
- Why Some Firms Export, "Bernard, A.B.", NBER, ~, pp.NBER Working Paper, No. 8349 (2001)
- Bhagwati, J., "The Theory of Preferential Trade Agreements : Historical Evolution and Current Trends", American Economic Review, 86, pp.82~87 (1996)
- Chen, M.X., "Third-country Effects on the Formation of Free Trade Agreements", Journal of International Economics, 82, pp.238~248 (2010)
- Integration Strategy for East Asia(II):Focusing on Korea, China and Japan, "Chun, Hongtack", Korea Development Institute, ~ (2011)
- Egger, P., "Interdependent Preferential Trade Agreement Memberships : An Empirical Analysis", Journal of International Economics, 76, pp.384~399 (2008)
- Fabio, G., "International Trade and Macroeconomic Dynamics with Heterogeneous Firms", Quarterly Journal of Economics, 120, pp.865~915 (2005)
- Frankel, J. A., "Trading Blocs and the Americas : The Natural, the Unnatural, and the Super-natural", Journal of Development Economics, 47, pp.61~95 (1995)
- Frankel, J. A., "Regional Trading Arrangements : Natural or Supernatural", American Economic Review, 86, pp.52~56 (1996)
- Frankel, J. A., "The Regionalization of the World Economy", pp.91~113 (1998), University of Chicago Press
- Hegre, H., "Trade Does Promote Peace : New Simultaneous Estimates of the Reciprocal Effects of Trade and Conflict", Journal of Peace Research, 47, pp.763~774 (2010)
- Helbe, M., "Is God Good for Trade?", Kyklos, 60, pp.385~413 (2007)
- Hofstede G., "Cultures and Organizations: Software of the Mind" (2010), McGraw-Hill
- 김종섭, "대외관세의 차이가 무역전환효과에 미치는 영향 분석: 남미공동시장의 사례", 국제.지역연구, 13(4), pp.77~92 (2004), 국제학연구소
- The 20 Years of MERCOSUR: Performance and its Implications, "Kim, Jino", Korea Institute for International Economic Policy, ~ (2011)
- Kim, Ki-Hyun, "Understanding Latin American Economy: Natural Resources, Inequality, and Reforms" (2011), Hanul Academy
- MERCOSUR’s Free Trade Negotiations and Implications for a Korea-MERCOSUR FTA, "Kim, Won-Ho", Korea Institute for International Economic Policy, ~, pp.Policy Analysis 06-16 (2006)
- Krugman, P., "The Move Toward Free Trade Zones", Policy Implications of Trade and Currency Zones, proceedings of a Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City symposium, pp.7~41 (1991)
- Lee, Jai-Ki, "Economic Integration" (2005), Hanol Publishing
- Lipsey, R. G., "The Theory of Customs Unions : A General Survey", Economic Journal, 70(3), pp.496~513 (1960)
- Malamud, Andrés, "Mercosur Turns 15 : Between Rising Rhetoric and Declining Achievement", Cambridge Review of International Affairs, 18(3) (2005)
- Mansfield, Edward, "Replication, Realism, and Robustness : Analyzing Political Regimes and International Trade", American Political Science Review, 96, pp.167~169 (2002)
- Mansfield, Edward, "Trade Blocs, Trade Flows, and International Conflict", International Organization, 54, pp.775~808 (2000)
- Martin, P., "Make Trade Not War?", Review of Economic Studies, 75, pp.865~900 (2008)
- Martin, P., "The Geopgraphy of Conflicts and Free Trade Agreements", ~ (2011)
- McFadden, D., "The Revealed Preferences of a Government Bureaucracy : Theory", Bell Journal of Economics, 6, pp.401~416 (1975)
- McFadden, D., "Quantal Choice Analysis : A Survey", Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, 5, pp.363~390 (1976)
- "Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy" (2015)[URL]
- Park, I., "Cultural Affinity, Political Ties, and Endogenous Regional Trade Agreements: A New Empirical Evidence", ~ (2013)
- Wonnacott, P., "Free Trade Areas and U.S. Trade Policy" (1989), Institute for International Economics