국제원유가격과 금속자원가격 변동의 인과관계 분석
The Causal Relationship among International Crude Oil and Metals Prices
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초록
본 연구에서는 전략적 가치가 높으면서도 대부분을 수입에 의존하고 있는 주요 자원인 원유와 일곱 가지 금속자원 가격 사이의 인과관계를 살펴보았다. 분석 결과 유가 급등 기의 Brent유와 아연 가격을 제외하고는 Brent유와 다른 모든 금속자원 가격 사이에 장기적인 균형관계가 관찰되었다. 또한 Brent유와 모든 금속자원 사이에 하나 이상의 인과관계가 존재하는 것으로 분석되었으며, 금속자원 가격에서 Brent 가격으로의 인과관계가 두드러졌다. 이러한 분석 결과는 기존의 과잉 공행성 가설(excess co-movement hypothesis)을 뒷받침하는 결과라고 볼 수 있다. 에너지･자원 안보 차원에서도 자원 가격 변화와 가격 결정에 영향을 미치는 요인에 대한 정보는 중요한 정책적 판단의 근거가 된다. 따라서 본 연구의 결과를 바탕으로 향후 해외자원개발 전략 수립 시 에너지와 금속자원의 관계를 고려해야 할 것이다.
Abstract
In this study, causal relationships among the prices of Brent crude oil and seven strategic metals are analyzed. As results, long-run equilibriums are observed among all relations except Brent and zinc in the period of rapid increases of oil price. More than one causal relationship exists between Brent and other metal prices and the causality from metal to Brent price is noticeable. These results support the excess co-movement hypothesis. In the light of energy and resources security, price movements and pricing mechanism of resources are important for policy decision. Therefore, the relations among energy and metal prices will be considered for the national program for overseas resources development with the results of this study.
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