GCAM을 이용한 건물부문 실내온도 규제의 효과 분석
Impact Analysis of Indoor Cooling Temperature Regulation for Buildings Sectors Using GCAM
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초록
본 연구는 공공기관 냉방온도 준수의무를 전체 건물부문에 적용하였을 경우 예상되는 효과를 분석한다. 2005년 에너지총조사 건물부문 자료를 이용하여 기준년도 에너지소비량을 설정하고, 서울지역 시간대별 기온데이터를 이용하여 18°C, 26°C, 28°C 기준의 연간 냉방도일을 산정하여 시나리오를 구성하여, Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM)을 사용하여 시뮬레이션하였다. 2015년부터 2030년까지 시나리오별 최대 누적 1차에너지수입량 및 비용, 온실가스배출 저감량은 각각 173.2 MTOE, USD64.4Bil., 360.5 MTCO2이며, 상업용건물의 절감효과가 가장 큰 것을 확인하였다. 최대 누적비용 절감액이 2013년 에너지수입 총액의 64.6%에 달하는규모라는 점에서, 에너지절감과 국제수지개선, 온실가스 저감을 위해 인센티브 구조를 제공함으로써 여름철상업용 건물부문의 실내온도 규제정책을 에너지이용합리화의 한 방안으로 고려해 봄직하다.
Abstract
This paper attempts to extend its impact analysis of indoor cooling temperature control to all types of buildings, which currently is only the obligation of public buildings under the Rational Energy Utilization Regulations, using Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). Once the updates of building sector information for GCAM with its base year of 2005, model simulations are conducted for the cases of indoor temperature control of 18°C, 26°C, 28°C, respectively. Cumulative impacts expected up to 2030 since 2015 are 173.2 MTOE, USD 64.4Bil., 360.5 MTCO2 for primary energy consumption reduction, energy import reduction and CO2 emission reduction, respectively for the case of 28°C. Considering the fact that this amounts to 64.6% of total energy imports of 2013, it is recommended to reform the current indoor temperature regulation being extended to commercial buildings with properly designed incentive structure.
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