3대 세습 이후 북한 체제와 한국의 선택

Abstract

Following the third-generation power succession which was made official on September 28, 2010 at the Conference of Representatives of North Korea’s ruling Workers’ Party, North Korea might be able to maintain its communist system by exercising tight physical control over its people through the Great Leader(Suryong in Korean) system and with assistance from China, its ally. However, it does not look likely that North Korea’s communist dynasty of will last for a long time with the ever-worsening economic crisis, an inevitable internal power struggle, the rapidly expanding restlessness of its people and the international sanctions over North Korea’s nuclear development as long as it continues to remain stuck with the anachronistic one-man Great Leader dictatorship. It is notable that North Korea led by the House of Kims continue to remain committed to the slogan of building North Korea into a “Powerful and Prosperous Nation” by 2012. However, there is little chance that slogan will materialize unless it considers major policy shifts in the direction of opening and reform in addition to the abandonment of its nuclear ambitions as well as a departure from its policy of military provocations as evidenced in the shelling of Yeonpyeongdo. There has been a shift in the mood of the South Korean population in dealing with North Korea as a consequence of such recent developments as North Korea’s obstinacy in pursuing a hereditary succession of power and the recurrent military provocations. Recent polls show a growing number of the South Korean respondents becoming increasingly more outspoken speaking for a Republic of Korea-led unification as the ultimate means to set the peninsula free from security risks posed by North Korea. In order to achieve the goal of unification befitting the goal and the value of unified Korea, the Republic of Korea should be in the process of a shift in the direction of mobilizing more resources to induce a regime change in North Korea. At the same time, South Korea must actively provide contingency plans in preparation for North Korea’s sudden collapse.