트럼프 행정부의 신형 3종 저위력 핵무기와 미국의 핵전략 동향
The Trump Administration’s Low-Yield Nuclear Weapons and US Nuclear Strategy
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미국 바이든 행정부가 새롭게 출범하면서 트럼프 행정부 시기 개발이 추진된 신형 3종 저위력 핵무기를 포함한 국방 부분 전반에서 ‘트럼프 정책 뒤집기’가 나타날 것이라 전망된다. 이러한 배경에서 본 연구의 질문은 트럼프의 저위력 핵무기와 과거 행정부와의 연속성은 무엇인가이다. 기존의 저위력 핵무기에 대한 논의가 신형 핵무기에 대한 찬반론이나 개발 추이에 초점을 두고 트럼프 행정부의 ‘예외적’ 선택으로 해석하는 경향인데, 본고는 저위력 핵무기 개발을 고민한 과거 부시 행정부부터 트럼프 행정부까지의 연장선상에서 저위력 핵무기에 대한 논의를 재조명해보고자 하였다. 오바마 행정부가 핵 없는 세상이라는 비확산·비핵중심의 전략으로 전환하고자 하였으나 다변화된 위협과 강대국 전략경쟁의 심화라는 구조적 한계가 있었고, 트럼프 행정부가 이를 발판으로 오바마 행정부의 비핵전략의 동력을 뒤바꾸며 저위력 핵무기 개발에 나서게 되었다. 본고는 아래와 같이 구성되어 있다. 첫째, 미국의 신형 3종 저위력 핵무기의 이론적·기술적 함의를 조명하고 저위력 핵무기에 대한 찬반론을 미국내 형성된 핵논쟁(핵확산 대비 비확산 안정론)의 구조에서 재해석하였다. 둘째, 2001년 9.11 이후 저위력 핵무기 옵션을 고려하였던 부시 행정부부터 트럼프 행정부까지 핵전략의 목표와 수단의 변화를 추적하였다.
Abstract
This study assesses the continuity and change in US nuclear strategy by focusing on the Trump administration’s development and deployment of three low-yield nuclear weapons. While studies treat Trump’s low-yield nuclear weapons as an outcome of its ‘America First’ strategy, this study argues that there is continuity from the George W. Bush administration through the Obama administration’s pursuit of a nuclear-free world. Amidst a diversification of threats and increasing strategic competition with major powers, there appears to be a bipartisan consensus in the US that nuclear weapons continue to play a critical role in deterrence. This paper is organized in two major parts. First, it provides an overview of the technical and theoretical implications of the three new low-yield nuclear weapons. Second, it traces changes in nuclear strategy from the Bush administration to the Trump administration.
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