고슴도치 이론(Porcupine Theory)과 북한 김정은 정권의 한반도 통일전략

Abstract

Nuclear-armed, in fact, North Korean Kim Jong Eun regime proclaimed in January 2021 a revised party’s regulations to reflect current situation through the 8th party convention of Workers’ Party of North Korea. In particular, the revised party’s regulations revealed the aggressive will of expediting the South-North reunification with “strong military force.” Considering North Korea's party regulation which has a higher authority than the Constitution, the revision of the party’s regulations is a significant concern for South Korea, preparing for reunification of the Korean Peninsula with peace principle. Indeed, just because the poorest, small country, North Korea is armed with nuclear weapons, will it be possible to overpower South Korea and its security alliance, the world's strongest nation, the United States, and achieve the unification of Korean Peninsula? This article focuses on analyzing if the North Korean Kim Jong Eun regime’s ultimate goal to “reunifying the Korean Peninsula by force with a high level of psychological warfare” is feasible under the situation. The analytic framework employed in the study is a Porcupine Theory. A central tenet of the theory is that even a small country could have a security deterrent against a powerful country if she had the thorn of a porcupine that could cause fatal damage to a powerful country. In conclusion, if North Korea is certainly armed with ICBM (Intercontinental Ballistic Missile) and SLBM(Submarine Launched Ballistic Missile), it is likely that the North “the Korean Peninsula reunification by force with a high level of psychological warfare” could be feasible. Subsequently, South Korea’s response strategy to the threat North’s unification strategy by force with a high level of psychological warfare is examined from the perspective of deterrence and defense. Specifically, this study suggests a few countermeasures such as strengthening the credibility of the U.S. nuclear umbrella, expediting WMD(weapons of mass destruction) and response system, establishing various collective security consultative bodies in Northeast Asia, improving unification measures and ect.