북한의 딜레마와 한반도 통일 2030

Abstract

This paper discusses three important issues for the Korean Peninsula and evaluates the unification environment of the peninsula in 2030. First, it assesses the political and economic problems of the Kim Jong-un regime. Second, it analyzes Kim Jong-un’s dilemma as he decides whether to give up his nuclear weapons program. Third, it offers a South Korea policy toward North Korea based on the unification environment on the Korean Peninsula by 2030. North Korea continues to pursue dialogue with the US for diplomatic normalization. The US, however, will maintain sanctions against North Korea and refuse to recognize North Korea unless it abandons nuclear and long-range missile programs. Therefore, “the new strategic guideline” proposed by Kim Jong-un is doomed to fail. The US is losing its desire for overseas engagement, especially in the Asia- Pacific region. OPCON transfer to the South Korean military will be completed in two or three years. The US continues to pressure South Korea to increase defense burden sharing. In these circumstances, the ROK-US alliance will slowly and steadily deteriorate. Security concerns of next-generation soldiers and the South Korean public will decrease gradually. Therefore, the unification environment by 2030 will be much more unfavorable to South Korea than it is now. To achieve the peaceful unification of the Korean Peninsula, the paper suggests: first, South Korea and the US put their first policy priority on denuclearization of North Korea; second, they have to implement denuclearization measures with step-by-step efforts; third, they must prepare a roadmap for a peace system on the peninsula related to denuclearization of North Korea; fourth, they should strengthen the alliance system; fifth, South Korea must increase military preparedness against North Korea by completing as early as possible such military programs as the Kill-chain, KAMD, and KMPR; finally, South Korea must support democratization of North Korea to get it to abandon its nuclear program by itself.