북한 붕괴 이후 상황에서의 러시아의 대응과 역할에 관한 연구

Abstract

Prior to 16th century, Korean Peninsula(KP) states had served as a balancing power between Chinese and Northern states. From the later 19th century, the weakened Korea served as a victim between Sea and Land Powers from In and Out of North East(NE) Asia competing for dominancy. While seeking Balance of Power(BP), Powers discussed about dividing the KP. When they did reach a Balance. The Powers that tried to change the balance began the Korean War. The BP reaffirmed by the bloody war fixed the status of divided KP. A collapse of North Korea(nK) will form a power vacuum in the geopolitical center of NE Asia and thus will trigger a competition between China and U.S. that will be very tough, however, not open to a large scale armed conflict between the both. The two Powers, similarly as prior and post of Korean War, may seek a BP and do reach a balance. As a probability, the bilateral competition between ROK/US Alliance and China in nK collapse situation might result in further splitting of nK in two or rebuilding of nK to maintain two Koreas in KP. China might be happy with the buffer zone and U.S. might also be OK with wider south Korea kept in alliance, while Korea would not accept the status quo of 'two Koreas'. Korea will resume offensive measures to reach the end state of unification process with its two arms of military might and nK populace' resistance & guerilla warfare to force third countries' withdrawal, which will surely be successful. Russia will engage itself in nK Collapse situation to retain its geopolitical interest of sharing international boundary with the KP state. Russia will seek to attain its objective at minimum cost and risk through balancing mediation between U.S. and China. Russia's roles as a balancing mediator may lead the nK Post Collapse scenarios into a multilateral cooperation process while exercising positive influences to see a reunified Korea. Reunification of two Koreas, which will conclude the nK Collapse situation, could see the current BP structure of NE Asia buffered on two Koreas in KP be transferred into a new NE Asia order pivoting to the reunified Korea in balancing role.34)