2012년 이후 조지아의 대러 정책 변화 - 양상과 요인 -
Changes in Georgia’s Policy toward Russia since 2012
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초록
이 연구의 목적은 2012년 이후 조지아의 대러 정책 변화 양상을 파악하고, 그것에 영향을 미친요인을 분석하는 데 있다. 2008년 8월 러시아-조지아 전쟁 이후 조지아의 대러 정책은 적대적이었다. 조지아는 러시아를 ‘점령자’로 규정하고, CIS에서 탈퇴했으며, 외교관계마저 단절했다. 하지만2012년 10월 총선에서 야당이 승리한 이후 조지아의 대러 정책은 극적으로 변화했다. 조지아는 공식문서에서 ‘점령자’라는 단어를 더 이상 사용하지 않고, 이른바 ‘카라신-아바쉬제 면담’을 통해 러시아와의 직접 대화를 시도했다. 또한, 조지아는 우크라이나 위기와 관련한 대러 경제제재에 소극적으로 참여하고, 러시아 국민의 무비자 입국 및 체류도 허용했다. 2012년 이후 조지아의 대러 정책 변화 요인은 다음과 같다. 정치적 요인으로는 ‘저기대효과’를이용한 이바니쉬빌리 정부의 차별화 전략, 대러 관계 개선을 희망하는 여론 확산, 압하지야 및 남오세티야 문제 장기화에 대한 부담을 지적할 수 있다. 경제적 요인에는 2008년 8월 러시아-조지아전쟁 이후 나타난 경제성장률 하락, FDI 감소, 무역액 감소, 해외송금액에서 러시아의 큰 비중 유지가 포함된다.
Abstract
The purpose of this study is to identify the changes in Georgia’s policy toward Russia since 2012 and to analyze the factors that influenced them. After the Russo-Georgian War in August 2008, Georgia’s policy toward Russia in 2008–12 was hostile. Georgia defined Russia as an “occupier”, withdrew from the CIS, and cut off diplomatic relations with Russia. However, Georgia’s policy toward Russia has changed dramatically since the opposition won the general election in October 2012. Georgia no longer used the word “occupier” in its official documents, and continued direct talks with Russia through the so-called “Karasin-Avashidze meetings.” Also Georgia took a passive part in economic sanctions against Russia regarding the Ukrainian crisis, and allowed Russian citizens to enter the country and stay there visa-free. The factors behind the changes in Georgia’s policy toward Russia since 2012 are as follows. Political factors include the Ivanishvili government’s differentiation strategy using the “low expectations effect,” the spread of public opinion that wants to improve relations with Russia, and the burden of the prolonged Abkhazia and South Ossetia issues. Economic factors are the decline in economic growth rate, the decrease in FDI and trade volume that emerged after the Russo-Georgian War in August 2018, and Russia’s a large share in the volume of the remittances from abroad to Georgia.
참고문헌 (42)
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