핵확산의 추세 vs. 비확산의 방책
Trend of Nuclear Proliferation vs. Measures of Non-proliferation
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이 글은 1945년 이후 핵확산의 추세와 비확산의 방책을 검토한다. 대규모 핵확산을 예상하던 비관론과 다르게, 핵확산은 완만하게 진행되어 현재 9개국만이 핵무기를 보유하고 있다. 냉전기 핵무기 수가 증가하고, 핵무기의 운반체계가 정교화되고, 핵무기의 파괴력이 늘어났지만, 냉전 이후 미국과 러시아는 핵통제는 물론 핵감축을 통하여 수직적 핵확산도 제어하고 있다. 국제체제 차원에서 핵확산의 우려는 현실화되지 않았다. 비확산은 핵무기 제조에 필요한 물질, 부품, 기술을 통제하는 방책, 핵보유 야망의 정치적 동인을 약화시키거나 제어하는 방책, 규범 또는 일방적 선언으로 핵무기의 사용 가능성을 낮추는 핵봉쇄로 나뉠 수 있다. 핵확산금지조약(NPT)은 핵물질의 이전과 핵기술의 군사적 전용을 어렵게 하여 핵확산의 기회를 줄이지만, 핵보유의 정치적 야망을 제어하지는 못한다. 국제사회는 특히 비정부단체에 의한 핵확산과 핵테러를 방지하기 위하여, 핵물질과 핵무기의 이전을 적극적으로 차단하며 핵테러 방지를 위한 국제협약을 강화하고 있다.
Abstract
This paper shows that horizontal nuclear proliferation does not deepen as much as pessimists predicted and vertical nuclear proliferation has been weakened in the post-Cold War era. It groups a variety of measures of non-proliferation into three categories: decreasing opportunities to nuclear proliferation, neutralizing or bridling political willingness for nuclear proliferation, and 'nuclear containment.' Also, it reviews Proliferation Security Initiative(PSI) and the nuclear terrorism convention, which curb the possible nuclear proliferation by non-governmental organizations.
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