국제체제의 안정성과 새로운 핵보유 국가의 등장: 21세기의 핵확산 논쟁
Emerging Proliferators in an International System: Spread of the Nuclear Weapons in the 21st Century
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핵확산은 21세기 국제정치의 중요 특징이다. 북한의 핵실험과 이란의 핵무기 보유를 위한 노력은 미래 세계에는 핵무기를 보유한 국가의 숫자가 증가할 가능성이 크다고 시사한다. 그렇다면 핵무기를 보유한 국가들의 숫자가 증가하는 경우에 국제체제는 어떻게 변화하는가? 냉전기간 동안 미국과 소련의 핵무기 증강은 상당 부분 안정적인 평화를 가져왔다. 그렇다면, 파키스탄-북한-이란 등의 국가가 핵무기를 보유하는 경우에도 이러한 평화가 다시 등장하는가? 그러나 파키스탄-북한-이란 등은 신뢰할 수 있는 핵전력을 구축할 수 없으며, 핵무기 사고를 유발할 가능성이 크고, 핵무기를 외부에 판매할 가능성이 크다. 그리고 새로운 핵확산은 핵무기 경쟁을 초래하게 된다. 핵확산은 바로 이러한 측면에서 위험하며, 앞으로는 이러한 부정적인 영향을 억제하여 핵확산을 보다 안정지향적으로 유도해야 한다.
Abstract
The world has observed an increase in the number of nuclear powers. What would be the consequences of the nuclear proliferation in the twenty-first century? Would the new century be more unstable or not? The Cold War had been quite stable for the “balance of terror” which was the unintended consequence of the nuclear weapons. In contrast, the nuclear proliferation in the new century would not follow the footsteps of the Cold War; instead, it would bring more dangers than benefits. Emerging proliferators such as Pakistan, North Korea, and Iran would have difficulties in building credible deterrent capability for their political setbacks. They might sell the nuclear devices to terror groups, contributing to nuclear terrorism. There would be accidents with nuclear explosions. Their emergence into nuclear status could trigger nuclear arms races particularly in Asia. It is of great importance to stop the current trend to proliferation, but it is more critical to contain destabilizing effects from the proliferation and to encourage the proliferators to build stability-friendly nuclear forces.
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