김정은 유일지도체계의 이행 가능성에 관한 시론적 연구: 권력엘리트 간 수평적 균열을 중심으로

Abstract

This article has its main purpose on the prognosis for the possibility of a transition of Kim Jong-un’s the one and only leadership system. The hypothesis for the test is that in the one and only leadership system, as centripetal forces of supreme leader decreases, the action of centrifugal forces leads to cleavages within the power elites which could be called a dissension in the same strata. In addition, the mechanism of maintenances and cleavages of the one and only leadership system is applied to the hypothesis. First of all, a significant decrease in centripetal forces of a supreme leader is presented as follows: ① the rapid power succession ② the establishment of Kim Jong-il and Kim Jong-un’s joint governance system ③ the limit of building Kim Jong-un’s own dominant ideology ④ the absence in succession of a new generation of military elites. Then, I referred to weak points which may bring out cleavages within the power elites as follows: ① causing the thresholdism coming from strengthening the pro-governing regime ② buck-passing between the power elites according to policy failures ③ the excessive performance and royalty competition within the power elites ④ conflicts and competitions between power elites for guarantee of economic status. Thus, I concluded that the one and only leadership system in the Kim Jongun’s era increases the possibility of a transition into the monolithic or collective leadership system.