오바마의 주판(珠板)과 긴 파장(波長)?: 재균형과 한반도에 대한 함의
Obama's Calculation and Its Unintended Consequences Looming Large?: "Rebalancing" and Its Implications for the Korean Peninsula
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2012년 초 오바마 미국 대통령은 중동에서의 전쟁을 마무리하면서 핵심적인 경제․안보 이익이 걸려있는 아태지역으로의 ‘재균형’을 천명했다. 중국의 부상을 견제하여 미국의 지역적 영향력 감퇴를 방지하는 데 목적을 둔 이 정책은 중국의 신형대국관계론 및 반개입능력 증강 등 복합적인 반응을 야기하고 있다. 그러나 미중 간 경쟁은 높은 경제적 상호의존성, 그리고 국내적 필요와 제약으로 인해 일정한 정도의 안정성을 담보할 것으로 예상된다. 문제는 중일관계가 통제되지 않는 방향으로 일탈할 개연성이다. 이들의 변동하는 득실구조, 독특한 전략문화와 가치관, 그리고 역사와 결합한 비타협적 민족주의 등이 전략계산에 개입하여 오판, 과잉반응, 동맹연루 등을 초래할 수 있는 것이다. 필자는 이러한 가능성들이 한반도에 대해 갖는 함의를 분석하고, 그에 터하여 한국의 외교안보적 정책대안을 제시하고 있다.
Abstract
In early 2012, the U.S. President Obama made public that the U.S. national security strategy shifted its focus from Iraq/Afghanistan to Asia-Pacific as he believed that the wars were nearing the end and re-discovered the importance of the ‘America’s Asian backyard' where U.S.’s significant economic and security interests are at stake while its influence was declining. With the apparent purpose of checking the rapid rise of Chinese influence in the Asia-Pacific region, the 'rebalancing' causes multifaceted responses by China including the approaches of the 'New Great Powers Relations' and 'Anti-Access/Area-Denial.' However, the bilateral competition is not likely to get out of control thanks to their high level of economic interdependence and domestic necessities and constraints. The danger is, nonetheless, the possibility of Sino-Japanese relations veering toward instability; these nations’ changing payoff-structures, unique strategic cultures and value systems, and rigid nationalisms fused with history problems may interfere with their rational strategic calculations resulting in a misjudgment, overreaction, and alliance entrapment. This paper analyzes the implications of these possibilities for the Korean peninsula, and suggests a few foreign policy alternatives for Korea.
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