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지역 국제기구의 제도화와 강대국의 내전 개입 가능성

Institutionalization of Regional International Organizations and the Possibility of Major Powers' Military Intervention in Civil Wars

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극동문제연구소 (THE INSTITUTE FOR FAR EASTERN STUDIES)|2014.09|한국과 국제정치 (Korea and World Politics)|제30권 제3호|pp. 127-153|DOI 10.17331/kwp.2014.30.3.005

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참고문헌

키워드

국제기구내전생존분석Civil WarSurvival AnalysisMilitary Intervention강대국군사적 개입Major PowerInternational Organizations
주제분류정치외교학

초록

내전에 대한 강대국의 군사적 개입을 촉진 혹은 억지하는 요인은 무엇인가? 본 연구는 자유제도주의와 구성주의 이론에 근거하여 지역 국제기구의 제도화 수준이 높을수록 그 지역 국제기구에 속한 국가의 내전은 강대국으로부터의 군사적 개입을 경험할 위험이 낮아진다는 가설을 제시한다. 1944년부터 1999년까지 발생한 모든 내전과 강대국의 군사적 개입에 관한 경험적 자료를 이용한 생존분석(survival analysis) 결과는 이러한 가설을 지지한다. 지역 국제기구는 분쟁의 중재자 혹은 관리자로서 기능할 수 있으며, 또한 평화적 분쟁 해결에 관한 규범을 소속국가 간에 사회화시킬 수 있다. 이러한 역할을 효과적으로 수행할 수 있도록 조직구조와 행정체계를 갖춘 지역 국제기구는 강대국의 군사적 개입을 억지하는 효능을 가진다. 이러한 발견이 잠재적 개입 대상국에 제공하는 함의는 강대국의 군사적 개입을 바라지 않는다면, 분쟁의 중재․관리를 효과적으로 수행할 수 있는 지역 국제기구의 건설 및 제도화를 도모해야 한다는 것이다.

Abstract

What factors encourage or deter major powers’ military intervention in civil wars? Based on liberal institutionalism and constructivism, I hypothesize that when regional international organizations have higher level of institutionalization, their member states in civil conflict are less likely to experience military intervention from major powers. The statistical test results using data for civil wars and major powers’ military interventions from 1944 to 1999 support that hypothesis. Regional international organizations can function as mediators of conflicts, and promote socialization among member states so that the states can have norms about peaceful conflict resolution. The regional actors with organizational structures and administrational systems to effectively perform those roles have the ability to deter major powers’ military intervention. This finding provides potential targets of intervention with an implication that if they do not want to experience major powers’ military intervention, they need to try to build a regional organization with higher level of institutionalization, which can effectively function as a conflict manager.

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