유라시아의 지정학, 민족 균열, 그리고 재민주화: 우크라이나와 벨라루스 사례 비교
Eurasian Geopolitics, Subnational Cleavage, and Redemocratization: The Comparison of the Ukraine and Belarus Cases
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본 논문은 2004년 오렌지혁명이 발발한 우크라이나와, 상당 규모의 민주화 시위들이 빈발해왔음에도 루카셴코의 선거권위주의 정권이 여전히 유지되고 있는 벨라루스 두 국가를 비교․분석함으로써, 상기한 정치적 결과의 차이를 만들어낸 주된 원인을 밝히고자 한다. 특히 유라시아지역 전반에 걸쳐 영향력을 미치고 있는 국제적 요인과 두 국가의 국내적 요인에 공히 착목함으로써, 이 지역 재민주화의 정치적 동학에 대한 설명을 시도한다. 국제적 요인으로서 유라시아지역을 둘러싸고 부상해온 미국과 러시아 간 지정학적 경쟁은, 냉전 해체 이후 역내 강대국 간 세력관계가 재편되면서 구조화되었다. 우크라이나의 경우, 친미 세력과 친러 세력 간 민족 균열에 더해 지역 균열까지 중첩된 갈등양상으로 인해 지역별로 두 강대국에 대한 일방적 지지세가 구축되었다. 따라서 서부에 기반을 둔 반체제 세력은 민주화 시위와 친서방 노선으로의 전환을 동일한 목표로 설정하고, 준권위주의 체제에 대한 저항을 민족․지역 갈등으로 치환시킴으로써 대규모의 응집력 있는 시위를 조성해낼 수 있었다. 즉 미러 간의 지정학적 경쟁요인이 국내의 민족․지역 균열과 강하게 반응하면서 재민주화가 이루어졌던 것이다. 반면 벨라루스의 경우, 우크라이나와 달리 친서방 성향의 대중이 상대적으로 소수일 뿐 아니라 지역적으로 묶여있지도 않은 탓에, 반체제 저항이 형성되더라도 그 동원 및 응집화에 한계가 있을 수밖에 없었다. 즉 친러 세력과 친미 세력 간 균열이 대등하지 않았고 전자에 기울어진 탓에, 미러 간의 지정학적 경쟁요인이 재민주화를 추동하는 후자와 강하게 반응하지 못했던 것이다.
Abstract
This paper aims to compare the Ukraine case where the Orange Revolution occurred in 2004 and the Belarus case where the Lukashenko’s electoral authoritarian regime still stays in power, though significant demonstrations for democracy have been sometimes mounted against it, and find the main causes of the difference in the political outcomes. In particular, focusing on an international factor influencing most parts of this region as well as domestic factors in the two cases, this article attempts to analyze the political dynamics of redemocratization in Eurasian region. The geopolitical competition between the U.S. and Russia throughout Eurasian region was structured as an international factor, while the power relations among power nations were reorganized with the breakup of the Cold War. In Ukraine, the political conflict derived from the subnational cleavage between the pro-U.S. and pro-Russia forces overlapping with the regional cleavage between the west and the east of this country induced each region’s people to devote unilateral supports to a power nation among the U.S. and Russia. In this circumstance, the opposition force based on the west of Ukraine succeeded in creating massive and coherent protests, by displacing the resistance against the semi-authoritarian regime with the regional conflict. The factor of geopolitical competition between the U.S. and Russia strongly interacted with the subnational cleavage, and correspondingly redeomocratization could be achieved in Ukraine. In Belarus, by contrast, the formation of anti-regime resistance has showed a limit in the mobilization and solidification, since the pro-U.S. people is still a minority and not concentrated on a specific area. Thus the geopolitical competition factor could not strongly interact with the pro-U.S. force, differently from the Ukraine case.
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